Early Tour 10.4.12
Good Morning European Markets off 10-50bps (Russia -1.07 %). Nikkei +0.89 % %, HSI +0.09% % %, KOSPI -0.17%, ASX +0.31%
EUR 1.2940 (+0.27%) JPY 78.54 (-0.06%) GBP 1.6112 (+0.23%) Copper +0.45% Silver +0.76% Nat Gas +1.21% US 10yr 1.626%
Futures: Dow +33, Nasdaq +9, +4 DXY $79.76 (-20c) Crude $88.69 (+55c) Gold $1790.30 (+$10.50)
Round 1 of the Presidential debates clearly goes to Romney. He was aggressive and on point while Obama was on the defensive the entire night. Moderator Jim Lehrer takes some heat from the left for being too passive but a Romney spokesperson points out "you've lost the debate when you start blaming the moderator." FT bfcb-00144feabdc0.html> headline: "Romney dominates presidential debate." CNN headline: "Romney shakes up the U.S. Politico headline: "Not debatable: Obama stumbled." Even David Axelrod says he expects Romney will see a bounce after his performance & MSNBC's Chris Matthews asks "where was Obama tonight?" Despite the debate win, Romney still has his work cut out for him with only 1 month until the election - nevertheless this race is probably tighter than some of the recent polls have suggested and the odds of Romney being elected moved from 25.0% to 33.4% on Intrade overnight. BOE & ECB decisions later this morning and no one is expecting any changes or material policy updates (focus will be on Draghi Q&A and any commentary around Greece, Spain, OMT, deposit rate, etc). Spain sold 03.99 billion of 2-3-5yr debt this morning (inline with max target, btc's better, 3yr avg yield 3.956% vs 3.845% on Sep 20). September retail comps out today in the US and expectations are generally muted. Modest recovery in crude +0.27% after yesterday's big move lower. Risk assets opened higher in Europe but have since faded after a headline hit that Iran is sending military troops and long-range missile launchers towards Turkey (no confirmation of this yet). Currently just off lows of morning. SPA's +4 handles = 1449 last vs overnight high 1453.
Rate announcements: ROE @ 7am / ECB @ 7:45am (press conference @ 8:30am) Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Factory Orders @ 10am, FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 2pm
Marriot beat on N American strength (lower G&A) & gave stronger revpar view (trading +1.5%)
Costco Q4 total sss +5% (September total comp store sales +6% vs +5.2% ests)
3M & Avery Dennison terminate plan for $550M Avery unit sale on US Antitrust concerns
NuVasive lowers Q3 revenue outlook on unusually high account churn (trading -15%)
Unilever speculation company may sell Skippy peanut butter brand for $300-400M (trading -0.14%)
Accor announce sale and management buy-back deal for Pullman Tour Eiffel Hotel (trading unch)
Gerresheimer Q3 revs, EBITDA and net light, guidance maintained, outlook positive (trading -3.2%)
Nobel Biocare 9M revs light due to weakening Japanese demand, -ve media effect (trading -7.7%)
Arkema finalizes sale of tin stabilizer business (announced in July) to the PMC group (trading -0.19%)
French sells 04.805 billion of 10yr bonds (average yield 2.28% versus 2.21% prior) European banks told to hold on to $258 billion of fresh capital by the EBA (Bloomberg billion-of-fresh-capital.html>)
Draghi stares at Spain as brinkmanship keeps ECB waiting (2yr +50bps since Sep 7) (Bloomberg brinkmanship-keeps-ecb-waiting.html>)
Catalan president says Spain can't overcome economic crisis without help (should request aid)
IMF's Lagarde gives interview to Le Figaro (says ready to help Spain if it seeks aid) (Reuters< idUSP6E8JK02020121003?feedType=RSS&feedName=bondsNews>)
Italy 2011 debt/gdp revised up to 120.7% from 120.1% (2010 revised up to 119.2% from 118.7%)
Swiss industrial production +4.6% in Q2 versus same period last year (but new orders -1.1%)
Greek police clash w/ shipyard workers outside defense dept (say haven't been paid in 6 months)
Japan led region on a weaker yen as BOJ starts 2-day meeting today (further action expected)
Macau Sep GGR +12.3% y/y @ MOP 23.9bn - below estimates (Citi was MOP 25bn)
HK immigration dept saying China mainland tourists traffic -10% y/y in first 4 days of Golden Week
HK retail sales +4.5% m/m in August versus estimate +5.8% and +3.9% in July Australian retail sales +0.2% m/m in August versus estimate +0.4% and -0.8% in July
Australian Building Approvals +6.4% m/m in August versus estimate +4.7% and -21.2% in July
Leading European Sectors: Autos/Parts +0.83%, Trav/Les +0.39%, Insurance +0.31% Lagging European Sectors: Oil & Gas -1.25%, Basic Res -1.01%, Chemicals -0.93%
OIIM lowers guidance - CLRX Life Tech agreement - AMAT workforce restructuring HMAY guidance light - VC cfo resignation - JAKK new credit agreement
Secondaries (announced/priced): STWD, BWP, ENG SM
IPO's (filed/priced): Berry Plastics Group (BERY) 29.4M-shares priced at $16
Key Research: DB initiates LAMR (buy) & downgrades ECA (sell) & lowers HPQ pt, Jeff initiates CERN (hold),
Key Research: MS initiates AME/RBC (ew's) and HUBB/CBST/NBIX/NPSP (ow's) and OPTR (uw)
Key Research: UBS cuts ADTN/PLCM, Stifel downgrades ENS, Wells downgrades NOVA, JMP initiates ACCL (op)
Key Research: RBC initiates CF (sp) & cuts UPS, Capstone initiated NILE (buy), Piper
initiates QDEL (ow),
Key Research: Nomura upgrades EBAY (buy), CS initiates ELX (up), Axiom downgrades PWER (sell), Baird cuts S Key Research: SocGen downgrades REE SM, Panmure downgrades AZN LN, MainFirst upgrades MAN GY Key Research: MainFirst upgrades SKYD GY, JPM cuts EN FP, CBS & MS upgrade FGP LN, DB raises pt PSM GY Key Research: JPM cable note (downgrade EON PL), Cheuvreux luxury note (downgrade SFER IM & upgrade TOD IM)
Reporting Pre-Open: ISCA
Economic Data: Challenger Job Cuts @ 7:30am, RBC Consumer Outlook @ 8am, BOE rate decision @ 7am, ECB rate decision @ 7:45am, Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am, Factory Orders @ 10am, FOMC Meeting Minutes @ 2pm
EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am
Fed Speakers: Bullard @ 8pm (Memphis, Tenn)
Conferences: Johnson Rice Energy (New Orleans), CS Global Credit Products (Miami), MKM Investor (NYC)
Analyst/Investor Days: ENB, ENDP, AHC, ALOG, SSS, ORCL, SNSS
Non-Deal Roadshows: ACAD, ALEX, ASNA, AWH, CEMI, CLX, CNDO, CSV, CUBE, DSW, ED, ENS, ETRM, INFI, LOPE, LTXC, MINI, MRCY, NBIX, NLSN, SCVL, SO, &SI, SSREY, WPPGY, XPO
Shareholder Meetings: OPTT, ETAK, MOS, SUN
Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A
Other Newspaper Articles & Stories
| WSJ cautious: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) |
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| WSJ |
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| Greek Leader Wins Favor Abroad |
| WSJ< |
| Woes on Margins for Refiners |
| WSJ< |
| Burdened by Old Mortgages, Banks Are Slow to Lend Now |
| WSJ< |
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| Europe Officials to Weigh Further Budget Integration |
| WSJ< |
| 'Dark Pool' and SEC Settle |
| WSJ< |
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| Apple Suppliers Begin Producing Smaller Version of iPad |
| WSJ< |
| mod ITP marketplace_2> |
| Small Businesses Are Finding An Unlikely Banker: Amazon. |
| WSJ< |
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Multinational Crackdown on Computer Con Artists
NYT<
artists.html>
From Hamsters to Wizards, Weirdness That Succeeded in Advertising NYT succeeded.html>
Free trade with China still a decade away Globe and Mail< mulroney-says/article4587718/>
It will be '20 years' before property prices bounce back Irish Independent http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/it-will-be-20-years-before-property-prices-bounce-back-3249400.html
New York is a tall order for Europeans FT<
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International trade: A fragile armistice FT<
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EU banks close gaps in capital shortfalls FT<
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Portugal announces 'enormous' tax rises FT<
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Hollande forced into awkward EU contortions FT<
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China slowdown hits Asian growth hopes FT<
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Innovation drives America's reinvention FT<
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Democracy itself is at stake in southern Europe
FT<
Spain fears harsh terms from Nordic parliaments Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial crisis/9585406/Spain-fears-harsh-rescue-terms-from-AAA-Nordic-parliaments.html>
Global recovery 'will take at least six more years' Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financial crisis/9585027/IMF-Global-recovery-will-take-at-least-six-more-years.html>
Europe's banks told to hold more capital Telegraphhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9585011/Europes-banks-told-to-hold-more-capital.html
Taxes go up to keep the confidence of creditors The Timeshttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3557997.ece
Portugal raises taxes at 'critical moment' Guardianhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/03/portugal-raises-taxes-bailout-conditions
No recovery until 2018, IMF warns Guardianhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/imf-global-economy-warning
Europe & UK IN a game of 'wait and see' Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/hamish-mcrae/hamish-mcrae-in-europe-and-the-uk-its-a-game-of-wait-and-see-8196401.html
Google, Microsoft sing different tune for Nexus and Surface smartphones DigiTimes<
Key Events This Week
Friday: September Employment Report, Monti/Hollande/Rajoy meet in Malta (4pm GMT), ISI Election Conference (NYC), Earnings (STZ)
Key Events on the Horizon
October 8 - Troika to submit report on Greece, Eurozone FinMin meeting
October 9 - Alcoa (AA) officially kicks off Q3 earnings season after the close
October 11 - Biden vs Ryan debate (Danville, KY)
October 16 Obama vs Romney Debate #232 (Hempstead, NY)
October 18/19 - EU Summit
October 21 - Basque Country & Galicia regional elections in Spain
October 22 - Obama vs Romney Debate #3 (Boca Raton, FL)
October 23 - Spanish short-selling ban ends after the close
November 6 - US Presidential Election
November 8 - China's 18th Party Congress (leadership transition)
November 25 - Catalonia regional election in Spain
Ike Groff 680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 (203) 302-7300 |• <mailto:
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