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Homechevron_right Emailchevron_right Re: BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenarios, AMX hosted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, SMG short.
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Re: BAML Insight: NASPERS discount, XOM inflection, PCG scenarios, AMX hosted CEO, RENAULT spec-sit, ACC upgrade, GENE editing, GDPR idea, SMG short.

2 messages picture_as_pdf Source PDF
A
Amanda Ens Jun 14, 2018 9:04 AM
To
Rich Kahn

NASPERS: BUY. FINALLY CLOSING THE DISCOUNT?

Holding company with stakes in high quality Internet properties around the world including Tencent, Mail.ru and Delivery Hero. Key issue is the 45% discount NAV never seems to close (chart 1). Past 3 months Naspers crystallized over $12bn realizing impressive returns = 5,500x on Tencent and 3.7x on Flipkart. Zero impact on the discount for 2 reasons 1) limited visibility on use of proceeds and no buybacks 2) flows have not been helpful as South African investors materially reduced their ownership in Naspers. Why Buy now? 3 upcoming catalysts. 1) We think the company will change mgmt. incentive compensation at AGM August 2018 similar to the strategy Altaba used with a bonus multiplier. 2) With $10b in cash mgmt can unbundle legacy pay TV business (worth $8b) as company is less self-help dependent on cash flows. 3) Buyback debate. Asset disposals in right direction. 40% upside. Catalyst AGM in August.

EXXON: BUY. MGMT SUCCEEDING IN CHANGING DIALOGUE = VALUE & GROWTH.

In a rare event for the market, we hosted US1-rated XOM last week. We're comfortable with our street-high PO as mgmt. remain committed toward plans to double FCF by 2025 vs under investment risk by the other 'majors'. Following de-leverage high-grade portfolio, XOM accelerate investing opportunities through-the-cycle, the market's beginning to come around. Growth is ratable, commencing now in 2H18 with milestones to underpin confidence in delivery. Pace of Permian activity alone = earlier inflection? Parallel to catalyst underpinning CVX's 2016 turnaround.

AMX: HOSTED CEO. WORST IS BEHIND. MARGIN EXPANSION. DELEVERAGING. 29% UPSIDE.

For just the 2nd time in 7 years. Key messages: worst of competition/regulation is behind them. Scope to drive margins from low-30's to low-40's. Data demand robust. Dragging business either 1) losing relevance or 2) inflecting. Consolidated revenue/EBITDA can +2/6% CAGR through 2020E, respectively... AND EBITDA is diversified. Mexico 30%. Brazil 20%. US/EUR markets 25%. Remainder spread. Despite high exposure to hard currency B/S is diversified and at 2x (with plans to go to 1.5x by 1H19). Post 23% pullback stock trading at 5.4x EBITDA and 7.3% FCF. $20 target = 29% upside.

RENAULT: SPEC SITS BUY. MARKET PRICING NEAR ZERO FOR MERGER. ASYMMETRIC RISK/REWARD.

High conviction from BAML Special Sits in London. Risk-reward asymmetric. We see downside to €75-80 if the event it's ruled out vs. €95-125 upon a merger. Catalyst = Annual meeting tomorrow. Market currently pricing in NEAR ZERO probability of merger with Nissan. WE SAY: CEO's start/stop narrative on the merger has wiped out the perceived optionality. This is posturing for the deal. Renault needs the deal to unlock its punitive HoldCo discount. Nissan needs it as well. Full write up with SoTP assumptions available.

OTHERS: ACC upgrade. SMG short (ask for write-up). GENE-EDITING data point.

GDPR update, buy CYBR.

This message, and any attachments, is for the intended recipient(s) only, may contain information that is privileged, confidential and/or proprietary and subject to important terms and conditions available at http://www.bankofamerica.com/emaildisclaimer. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this message.

J
jeffrey E. Jun 14, 2018 1:29 PM
To
Richard KahnPaul Barrett

same advice to the butcher in columbus Ohio --- silly =idly>

1419 files from the DOJ Epstein case media release. All files are public records from justice.gov.

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