RE: EM
Jeffrey
Summary of some options when ready:
• Brazil local currency bond prices have been very stable. Most of the move has been in USDBRL. Best Option — Brazil 12.5% 2022 @7% YTM denom in BRL (vs lyr F= forward implying 6.9%)
• Russian RUB govt bonds down 2 points. Mainly a RUB move. Best Option - Russia 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM denom in RUB (vs lyr FX forward implying 7.06%)
• Turkey TRY denominated gov bonds down 10 points since last week and 36 points since April (63 price) Yielding 21%. I prefer using a 1yr TRY forward which equates to a 27% yield and not worry about illiquidity in their bond market.
FX Spot Changes
1 month
3 month
6 month
1 yr
BRL
-1.33%
-7.80%
-15.44%
-18%
RUB
-7.93%
-8.85%
-15%
-12%
TRY
-31%
-38.27%
-45.50%
-49.40%
Spot
3 month
6 month
1 yr
BRL
=3.9000
3.34%
4.30%
6.91%
RUB
=nbsp; 68.03
3.43%
4.71%
7.06%
TRY
6.9800
8.33%
14.69%
FX vol has also exploded. Do you want to see some option prices? The risk reversals are also pricing very well given how USD call vol has exploded vs USD puts.
• BRL 3 month vol has gone from 12% to 20%
• RUB 3 month vol has gone from 10% to 16%
• TRY 3 month vol has gone from 20% to 47%
Below is a list of the most liquid bonds:
Brazil
Petrobras 5.299% 1/27/2025 @ 6.35% YTM — USD Denominated
ltau 6.2% 12/21/2021 @ 4.73% YTM — USD Denominated
Brazil 12.5% 1/5/2022 @ 7.00% YTM — BRL Denominated
Russia
RFLB 6.7% 5/15/2019 @ 6.58% YTM — RUB Denominated
RFLB 6.80% 12/11/2019 @ 7.01% YTM — RUB Denominated
RFLB 6.4% 5/27/2020 @ 7.45% YTM — RUB Denominated
Turkey
Garanti 6.25% 4/20/2021 @ 10.74% YTM — USD Denominated — Turkish Bank
Turkey Sovereign 7% 6/5/2020 @ 8.44% YTM— USD Denominated
Turkey Sovereign 12.4% 03/08/28 @ 21 YTM—TRY Denominated
Paul Barrett
Jeffrey
Rich mentioned you are looking at Turkey and Saudi.
1 year Turkish Lira forwards are implying local interest rates around 29.30%. Could be a good way to play it.
Also we could do total return swaps on Saudi or Turkish indices. Better liquidity than the ETFs.
Paul Barrett
Alpha Group Capital LLC
142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10019