Re: Fw: EOD Commodities Nov - 19 Dec
OIL
It goes down, it goes up. Another high volatility da= in crude with WTI up over 5% and BRE up 3.5%. There has been consumer buy=ng in Asia and Europe, which has helped fuel this rally. Furthermore, Rig =ounts went down again with oil rigs down 10 to 1536 and gas ones down 8 to 338. Interestingly, Williston and P=rmian rigs took most of the hit, while EF gained 2. Seems consistent with =he companies which have been saying they will focus on their best plays wh=ch tend to be in the more mature Eagle ford area. Also, a point about OPEC December production. We said yes=erday it will be 28.8-28.9Mbpd. Interestingly, Iran actually upped its pro=uction around 160kbd mom; Iran's
production has been pretty steady=so far this year. The extra crude from Iran will probably not find its way to the market however, so the effectiv= OPEC production mom is down more like 350kbd to 29.7, still above the cal= on OPEC but much less so than most in the market expects. My sense is Ira= upped production so as to store and ride the contango as its storage had been depleted at the beginning of=the year as China was buying. They have oil in the ground which is pretty =uch useless (although they are implicitly riding contango there as well). =heir thought process probably is that if prices rally, restrictions are lifted, or china comes back for spr=buying, why not have it ready. Yes u have to pay cost but it's you= national shipping company, probably much cheaper than 75 cents all in (i.=. insurance and freight rates). Happy holidays to everyone-see you in 2 weeks!
Oil vols were a surprise today, rallying along with =latprice. With the weekend decay and price rally, one would expect prompt =ols to come off 2 vols..interestingly they ended up 1.5 vols.. We heard ab=ut some producer activity in cal16, taking advantage of the contango and relatively cheaper skew. Also, WTI/Br= vol spread rallied in the back (0.75 in dec5).. JunS and Dec5 wti/bre vol=spread is now getting into a sell region in my opinion...
615 51.50% +1.70% =C2 =A0 47.70% +0.50%</=> H15 =A0 49.60% +1.20% =A0 47.00% +1.00% =C2 =A0 M15 43.15% +1.30% =C2 40.00% +0.85% =C2 Z15 =C2 35.30% +0.75% =C2 =C2 33.00% +0.00% =C2 =A0 =/span> =C2
BASE METALS
Investor risk appetite has returned following the st=bilization in the Ruble and oil prices, causing equities and the base comp=ex to rise but Nickel and Aluminium have been left behind by the move. =AO Chinese housing data has improved with completions rising 8.1% yoy but the floor space under construction was onl= up 10.1%, the smallest increase in 9 years. Copper moved upwards as=the bears take profit. It hit highs of $6430 at around noon and dro=ped off slightly in the afternoon. The IMF has urged Zambia, Africa's 2nd biggest copper producer to resolve the =ssues with moving from a value added tax regime to a royalty model which h=s been cited as the cause for the closure of the 117 kMT/yr Lumwana copper=mine, with First Quantum and Vedanta expected to follow suit. Chile's Codelco have approved a $3.3bn =nvestment to transform the Chuquicamata mine into an underground operation=to extend it's life
by 40 years and have it producing 320kMT/year Glob=I copper production is approaching the 2 mMT record high at 1.993 mMT. Aluminium traded up in the morning but dro=ped sharply at around 15:00 to test support at around $1900. Nickel =id not see much in terms of a sustained rally in the morning and came off =harply at around 13:00. Chinese ferro-nickel imports are set to surge in the next 2 years on the removal of a tax on ov=rseas purchases and a number of Indonesian projects coming online as Chine=e firms have skirted the Indonesian ore export ban by investing in in plan=s in Indonesia in order to export Nickel Pig Iron. China has been seen importing 200-250kMT in 2015. Z=nc prices rose in the morning and were stable throughout the afternoon. =AO Zinc production has hit a new high of 1.17 mMT. Lead has rallied =n the news that smelters in Henan are cutting output by up to 30%, causing the global lead surplus to fall to 7451kMT
Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 6.55%=0 69.8 kMT. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 2.47%% to 1957.7 kMT.=Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are down 6.41% to 26.6 kMT. LME Copper s=ocks are flat 140.7 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.03% to 304.6 kMT.
Copper Vols are up - 0.84%, Ali Vols down - 0.19% in =he front, Nickel Vols are up around 0.35%, Lead and Zinc Vols unch
Upcoming Data
22/12-US Existing Home Sales- Survey 5.2m, Prior 5.2=m
23/12-US Durable Goods Orders-Survey 2.9%, Prior 0.4=, Revised 0.3%
23/12-US Durable Personal Consumption- Prior 0.4%
- 23/12-US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index- Survey 7,=Prior 4
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traade?
Sell straddles, delta hed=ing every day. We have an index that does that so you don't need to trade =he net delta daily. I can walk you through it if you would like.