IPI Middle East Update - June 21, 2012

INTERNATIONAL PEACE INSTITUTE

IPI Middle East Update

June 2=, 2012

Egypt: Early re=ults from the June 16-17 run-off presidential election indicate that the M=slim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party candidate, Mohammed Mor=i, is in the lead. The release of official results has been postponed pend=ng review of complaints from the candidates. The power struggle between th= Muslim Brotherhood, who held a majority in the parliament, and the milita=y leaders, who dissolved the parliament after a recent Supreme Constitutio=al Court ruling that invalidated the election of a third of the parliament=148217;s members, continues. Former President Hosni Mubarak's health =eteriorated in recent weeks, adding to the tensions in the power struggle.=ln addition, secularists and liberals have again boycotted the Constituent=Assembly, claiming bias in favor of the Islamists. The military has assert=d its authority, granting itself legislative authority and the right to na=e a new roster of members for the Constituent Assembly. While the Supreme =ouncil of Armed Forces has long-promised to hand over power to civilian au=horities as of June 30, the military leadership has, instead, strengthened=its governing power and its ability to determine the future direction of E=ypt's political transition.

Iran:q=pan> Negotiations among the five permanent=members of the Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) and Iran have yet to p=oduce results. The most recent round in Moscow on June 18-19 only produced=plans for a meeting among technical experts to be held on July 3 in Istanb=l. In addition, the latest talks between the International Atomic Energy A=ency (IAEA) and Iran on June 8 were also unsuccessful, as Iran did not gra=t access to a military site south of Teheran that inspectors believe was u=ed in tests related to Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA expressed co=cern over the Iranian demolition of buildings in specific sites.

Libya: Election of a national assembly to=govern the country and write a new constitution -- originally scheduled to=take place on June 19 -- was postponed to July 7 for logistical and techni=al reasons. Concerns have arisen over whether the interim authorities can =rovide the security needed to conduct a free and fair election. Recent inc=dents have added to these concerns. The Wafae militia from the city of Tar=ouna shut down Tripoli's international Airport on June 4 demanding t=e release of their commander, Abu Oleija al-Habishi, claiming he had been =rrested by security forces. The National Transition Council regained contr=l of the airport with the help of the militia from Misrata. On June 5, a b=mb exploded outside the US diplomatic office in Benghazi purportedly in re=aliation for the killing of Al Qaeda leader Abu Yahya Al Libi in Pakistan =nd on June 11, also in Benghazi, a British diplomatic convoy was hit by a =ocket-propelled grenade attack.

Palestinian-Israeli Relations= The issue of housing settlements continues to stir political tensions. Is=aeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered 300 new homes to be built i= the Beit El settlement in the West Bank on June 6. The United Nations, th= United States, and European Union representatives criticized the decision= questioned its legitimacy, and decried it as undermining peace efforts.

Syria:=Violence increased substantially in recent weeks with the reported kil=ing of hundreds of innocent men, women, and children in Houla, Qubair, andrAl Heffa by forces tied to the Assad government. The Free Syrian Army is n=ticeably better equipped, using antitank rockets to inflict heavier casual=ies among Syrian security forces. Following attacks on its mission observe=s, the United Nations suspended the mission, although the monitors remain =n Syria on lock down and unable to conduct patrols. The situation is forci=g the international community to reconsider its options for implementing t=e action plan. Bashar al-Assad, under heavy international pressure to comp=y with the peace plan, appeared unfazed as he gave a speech to the Parliam=nt on June 3 denying any government responsibility for the killing of civi=ians and describing the situation as an externally-driven crisis. Diplomat= are reportedly considering forming an international contact group as call=d for by Arab League-UN mediator Kofi Annan on June 7. The venue, tiring, and participants are currently under discussion.

Trends in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Tuni=ia, and Yemen:

• On June 10, opposition groups i= Iraq lacked the necessary 163 votes to pass a no confidence motion=to oust Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki after 11 Members of Parliament (MPs)=retracted their signatures. Press reports indicated that the Iranian gover=ment had influenced the process, exerting pressure on certain Iraqi MPs. S=nni-Shia tensions were also reflected in ongoing violence, including a dea=ly suicide attack on a Shiia religious office on June 4.=/Ii>

• Saudi Arabia's Crown Prin=e and Interior Minister Nayef bin Abdulaziz al-Saud died in Geneva on June=16. As

expected, Defense Minister Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud was =amed Deputy Prime Minister and the new heir

apparent by royal decree. =

• In Tunisi=, the new government, led by the Ennanda Party, is being challenged by=the entrenched interests of the former Ben Ali government and by Salafist =ctivists. Judges went on strike after the Justice Minister fired 81 judges=on suspicion of corruption. Clashes between the police and Salafist protes=ors have escalated to pre-revolution levels, sparked by an altercation bet=een the police and Salafists in Jencouba following the arrest of four Sala=is. As a result, the government imposed a curfew in major cities inc=uding Tunis.

• In Yemen, the army =uccessfully ousted the Ansar Sharia fighters (an Al Qaeda affiliated group= from the cities of Zinjibar and Ja'ar in the Abyan province that ha= been under Al Qaeda control si=ce May 2011. The army is now pursuing al-Qaeda terrorists in other =arts of the province. The Security Council is considering sanctions agains= groups associated with the former regime that continue to undermine the t=ansition. Deposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh's close relatives sti=l hold key positions in the military which is making the democratic transi=ion more difficult.