Fwd:
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Very few of us thought in 1998 that 3 years later we would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed an exponential law of cheaper and cheaper production. So as with all exponential technologies, in the beginning it was a disappointment but then after some time it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will probably happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. The 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will most likely disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. With IBM Watson, one can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with a 90% accuracy compared with a 70% accuracy when done by humans. There could be 90% less lawyers in the future, hopefully as I hate them all - only specialists might remain. The computer Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers may become more intelligent than humans.
Electric cars will most likely become mainstream by 2030. Cities will be less noisy because many cars will be electric. Electricity might become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but one can only recently, begin to see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that many coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will likely be 3D printed.
Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century, this is why I think the present financial plan needs a rethink.
Agriculture: There will probably be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodier" which can already tell in which mood you are. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's results are being displayed when the candidates are talking.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2030, 70% of all people will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.
Raafat, the biggest change however will be in the world of money. The world of currencies HAS NOT changed in fifty years, it lags behind the rest of development. There are a few new 21st century digital currencies, however, taken together they only currently total a few billion dollars. Mohammed's vision 2030, is bold and has many laudatory goals. It is truly a vision, rather than a fantasy. However, the financial methods considered, are somewhat last century. The idea that your country will raise Bonds in the public markets is not thoughtful. Though Qatar did it recently, the market views it as a sign of weakness, not as a sign of financial strength. Mohammed needs to be exposed to more forward thinking. McKinsey, Goldman and the investment banks are somewhat like dinosaurs.
I suggest two main pathways, The bold move would be for Saudi to create a complementary, currency to the current one. It would allow much more flexibility, creativity, exchangeability at almost zero cost. For example, SDRs were created by the IMF years ago. It was the first complementary world currency, (more details if you need them) food stamps alone in the US is an 80 billion dollar per year, complementary currency, 80 billion per year. It is a currency that can only be used to buy food. Saudi might consider having a new complementary currency based and backed by its oil. At the moment Saudi like the rest of the world is held hostage by the US banking system. Dollar reserves dollar based accounting etc. The computer revolution has disenfranchised most institutions retail shops, music shops, clothes stores, stock brokerage firms etc. The next institution to be modified is central banks etc. Saudi could be out front of this, and be seen to be truly 21 century.
I will send you more on this later. I have other things on my mind, en shalah.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Very few of us thought in 1998 that 3 years later we would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed an exponential law of cheaper and cheaper production. So as with all exponential technologies, in the beginning it was a disappointment but then after some time it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will probably happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. The 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will most likely disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. With IBM Watson, one can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with a 90% accuracy compared with a 70% accuracy when done by humans. There could be 90% less lawyers in the future, hopefully as I hate them all - only specialists might remain. The computer Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers may become more intelligent than humans.
Electric cars will most likely become mainstream by 2030. Cities will be less noisy because many cars will be electric. Electricity might become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but one can only recently, begin to see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that many coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will likely be 3D printed.
Any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century, this is why I think the present financial plan needs a rethink.
Agriculture: There will probably be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodier" which can already tell in which mood you are. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's results are being displayed when the candidates are talking.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2030, 70% of all people will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries.
Raafat, the biggest change however will be in the world of money. The world of currencies HAS NOT changed in fifty years, it lags behind the rest of development. There are a few new 21st century digital currencies, however, taken together they only currently total a few billion dollars. Mohammed's vision 2030, is bold and has many laudatory goals. It is truly a vision, rather than a fantasy. However, the financial methods considered, are somewhat last century. The idea that your country will raise Bonds in the public markets is not thoughtful. Though Qatar did it recently, the market views it as a sign of weakness, not as a sign of financial strength. Mohammed needs to be exposed to more forward thinking. McKinsey, Goldman and the investment banks are somewhat like dinosaurs.
I suggest two main pathways, The bold move would be for Saudi to create a complementary, currency to the current one. It would allow much more flexibility, creativity, exchangeability at almost zero cost. For example, SDRs were created by the IMF years ago. It was the first complementary world currency, (more details if you need them) food stamps alone in the US is an 80 billion dollar per year, complementary currency, 80 billion per year. It is a currency that can only be used to buy food. Saudi might consider having a new complementary currency based and backed by its oil. At the moment Saudi like the rest of the world is held hostage by the US banking system. Dollar reserves dollar based accounting etc. The computer revolution has disenfranchised most institutions retail shops, music shops, clothes stores, stock brokerage firms etc. The next institution to be modified is central banks etc. Saudi could be out front of this, and be seen to be truly 21 century.
I will send you more on this later. I have other things on my mind, en shalah.