Fw: EOD Commodities Note - 7 Jan
Oil
A relatively quiet day today. Both crudes managed to=hold their ground and WTI even rallied a bit; this is quite interesting gi=en that the DOE stats were bearish due primarily to the record product bui=ds. The arb and WTI spreads were especially strong. Part of the arb move may be due to the White House stat=ment regarding exports, which gave an approving light to the BIS approach.=This may incentivize more producers to self determine whether their method= fit the crude stabilization process appropriately. WTI spreads also rallied today, perhaps as profit taking to=k place amoidst a fantastically short market. There didn't seem to b= producer business as vols tanked today, so I think this rally was driven =y fund profit taking. Part of this may have been set off by strengthening USGC diffs off the back of the drop in =3 imports to quite low levels in the DOE stats. In BRE, the Window w=s weak today however, some buyers did emerge towards the end. Angolan carg=es are clearing ok (a single digit amount left for Feb), but around 45 Feb Nigerian cargoes remain unsold in additio= to the 15 or so January distressed ones. In products land, they tanked of= the back of the huge builds in the stats. Tomorrow, the index rebalancing=begins, so be weary!
Oil Vols
No buyer of vols again today..there was a massive pa=ic selling in the market. Bids kept getting hit and eventually market make=s started making things too wide and in small sizes. Wings sold off again =nd put skew got hit hard. At one point unhedged puts were getting sold even as flatprice was coming off.. i= the end the whole vol curve ended down by 3-4 vols in both crudes.
Base Metals
The base complex was gen=rally down today with a rally across the complex at 13:00 which subsided f=r all the metals bar Nickel. Macquarie consider base metals "the best=of a bad bunch when considering the different subsectors" as they expect demand growth to persist despite recent sp=utters. Nickel prices were moving up most of the day on heavy demand from =he alloy industry, while supply concerns persist due to the Indonesian exp=rt ban. Despite the mid day rally copper has been trading down. Yantai Penghui Copper, a 100kMT/yr copper sme=ter in Shendong province has halted production due to inability to obtain =redit following the Qingdao scandal. It is in talks with local gover=ment and banks to secure the financial aid it requires to resume production. CIBC see the copper and zinc markets bei=g tight in 2015. Zinc prices followed the base complex. Asia P=cific Mining Ltd have announced significant discoveries of silver, lead an= zinc around the Baldwin mine in Myanmar. Lead prices traded down in the morning but picked up at 13:00 and a=ain before close. Aluminium prices came rose in the morning only to come o=f after the 13:00 rally and picked up again for the close. Bauxite i=ventories have fallen in China as supplies have been hit by stricter financing rules.
Shanghai Aluminium on wa=rant stocks are down 3.71% to 48.6 kMT. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks ar= flat at 1852.2 kMT. Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 30.8 kM=. WE Copper stocks are up 0.21% to 154.1 kMT. 'NE Nickel stocks are down 0.09% to 328.4 kMT.
Copper Vols are up 0.6% =n the front 0.2% in the back, Ali Vols unch, Nickel Vols are up 0.87% in J=n, up 0.32% in Feb, Lead Vols are up 0.15% in the front and Zinc Vols up 0=12%
Upcoming Data
7/1-EC CPI Estimate Y=Y- Sury -0.1%, Actual -0.2%, Prior 0.3%
7/1- US MBA Mortgage =pplications-Actual 11.1%, Prior 18.2%
7/1- US ADP Employment Change-Survey 225k Actual 241k, Prior 208k, Revised =27k
7/1- US Trade Balance-Survey -42bn Actual -39bn Prior -43.4bn, Revised-42.2=n
Regards,
Prateek
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See below trading comment=ry in crude. Implied vol collapsing... Short term down 4 points to 52%. I =on't want you to catch a falling knife, but at a some point with continued=retracement, won't we know it doesn't go to 75%?