FW: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar
OIL
All eyes on Iran talks today which were extended by = day into Wednesday. Earlier in the day, a US official suggested that nego=iation may continue another day past deadline if 'it's useful =o do so'. Another Russian official commented that a deal was 'closer and closer'. This optimism about an ag=eement, at least on some points, weighed heavily on oil today with Brent d=opping 2.5%. In my opinion, even if the talks end positively with agreemen= on key points, the deal has been softened enough compared to what was originally sought by President Obama, and is g=ing to face a tough challenge being approved by a skeptical Congress, whic= is in fact proposing to impose new sanctions on Iran.
Nigeria's elections ended today easing the pol=tical tension, with the ex-military ruler Buhari's winning against t=e incumbent President. In short term, this eased any immediate violence co=cerns in the country, but this shift in power can lead to the movement of the Boko Haram violence to southern oil produc=ng region of Nigeria and any developments there need to be carefully watch=d. In other news, Yemen rebels seized military base at Bab el-Mandeb, over=ooking the key shipping route while Saudi-led coalition kept bombing Houthi occupied sites..
Vols were stronger with wings being bought aggressiv=ly today as oil can move quickly away from current levels depending on Ira= deal outcome.. overall vols gained about 1% across the curve</=>
| &=bsp; | &nb=p; | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1O.5 | &nbs=; | =nbsp; | 52.50% | +1.45% | &nbs=; | &=bsp; 51.10% +1.05% |
| M15 | &nbs=; | =nbsp; | 51.20% | +2.10% | &nbs=; | &=bsp; 47.90% +0.90% |
| Z15 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; | 37.10% | +1.00% | &nbs=; | +0.70% |
1
EFTA_R1_01374317
EFTA02371551
| Z16 &nbs=; | &=bsp; | 26.20% | +0.10%&n=sp; | = | 26.40% | +0.55% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals | ||||||||
| 3m Ivls | &nb=p; | =nbsp; | dod change&nbs=; | support | &nbs=; | &=bsp; | resistance | |
| Al $1785 | =nbsp; | &n=sp; | -$12.5 | &n=sp; | $1=50 | =nbsp; | $1800 | |
| Cu $6041 | =nbsp; | &nb=p; | -$41 | =nbsp; | =nbsp; | $6000 | &nb=p; | $6300 |
| Zn $2081 | &=bsp; | &nb=p; | -$28 | &nbs=; | &=bsp; | $2000 | &nbs=; | $2100<=o:p> |
| Ni $12,395 | =nbsp; | &nb=p; | -$485 | &nbs=; | $12,=00 | =nbsp; | $13,000 | |
| Pb $1820 | =nbsp; | &n=sp; | -$5 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; | $1800 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; $1900 |
The base complex traded down in the morning then pic=ed up on improving customer confidence only to crash off again at close.&n=sp; China has reduced the deposits required from home buyers for the secon= time in 6 months in an attempt to boost sliding house prices, which should have knock on effects in the copper and=nickel markets. Nickel continues its slide as CTA funds have s=ld off heavily on the supply crunch failing to materialize and demand from=the stainless steel market evaporating. Nickel ore supplies are also returning from the Philippines as the rainy s=ason ends, adding further supply pressure. Chinese NPI producers are=cutting production, selling stocks or attempting to secure loans on the ba=k of stocks in warehouses. Rio Tinto have resolved the their tax dispute with the Mongolian government over therOyu Tolgoi copper mine but financing still needs to be negotiated over pha=e II of the development there. Zambia's Mining and finance min=sters have indicated that they may consider temporarily reverting to the old tax regime or making deals on a mine by m=ne basis as the IMF applaud their efforts to compromise and encouraged the= to implement a transparent system that applies to all mines. Vietna= is expected to increase its aluminia output by 20% to 650kMT/year as its first plant reaches full capacity this=month.
Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.= kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888 kMT Shang=ai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 86.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks =re up 0.11% to 252 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.41% to 332 kMT.
Copper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.25%, =ickel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch
Upcoming Data
30/3-Chicago PMI-Surv 51.7%, Actual 46.3%, Prior =5.8%
30/3-US Consumer Confidence Index -Surv 96.=, Actual 101.3, Prior 96.4
Regards,
2
EFTA_R1_01374318
EFTA02371552
Prateek
Please=access the link for disclaimer:
http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html
&=bsp;
Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at
This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=.
Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such.
Prateek Jain
Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2015 4:06 PM
Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 31 Mar
OIL
All eyes on Iran talks today which were extended by = day into Wednesday. Earlier in the day, a US official suggested that nego=iation may continue another day past deadline if 'it's useful =o do so'. Another Russian official commented that a deal was 'closer and closer'. This optimism about an ag=eement, at least on some points, weighed heavily on oil today with Brent d=opping 2.5%. In my opinion, even if the talks end positively with agreemen= on key points, the deal has been softened enough compared to what was originally sought by President Obama, and is g=ing to face a tough challenge being approved by a skeptical Congress, whic= is in fact proposing to impose new sanctions on Iran.
Nigeria's elections ended today easing the pol=tical tension, with the ex-military ruler Buhari's winning against t=e incumbent President. In short term, this eased any immediate violence co=cerns in the country, but this shift in power can lead to the movement of the Boko Haram violence to southern oil produc=ng region of Nigeria and any developments there need to be carefully watch=d. In other news, Yemen rebels seized military base at Bab el-Mandeb, over=ooking the key shipping route while Saudi-led coalition kept bombing Houthi occupied sites..
Vols were stronger with wings being bought aggressiv=ly today as oil can move quickly away from current levels depending on Ira= deal outcome.. overall vols gained about 1% across the curve</=>
| &=bsp; | &nb=p; | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1O.5 | &nbs=; | =nbsp; | 52.50% | +1.45% | &nbs=; | &=bsp; 51.10% +1.05% |
| M15 | &nbs=; | =nbsp; | 51.20% | +2.10% | &nbs=; | &=bsp; 47.90% +0.90% |
| Z15 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; | 37.10% | +1.00% | &nbs=; | +0.70% |
1
EFTA_R1_01374317
EFTA02371551
| Z16 &nbs=; | &=bsp; | 26.20% | +0.10%&n=sp; | = | 26.40% | +0.55% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals | ||||||||
| 3m Ivls | &nb=p; | =nbsp; | dod change&nbs=; | support | &nbs=; | &=bsp; | resistance | |
| Al $1785 | =nbsp; | &n=sp; | -$12.5 | &n=sp; | $1=50 | =nbsp; | $1800 | |
| Cu $6041 | =nbsp; | &nb=p; | -$41 | =nbsp; | =nbsp; | $6000 | &nb=p; | $6300 |
| Zn $2081 | &=bsp; | &nb=p; | -$28 | &nbs=; | &=bsp; | $2000 | &nbs=; | $2100<=o:p> |
| Ni $12,395 | =nbsp; | &nb=p; | -$485 | &nbs=; | $12,=00 | =nbsp; | $13,000 | |
| Pb $1820 | =nbsp; | &n=sp; | -$5 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; | $1800 | &=bsp; | &nbs=; $1900 |
The base complex traded down in the morning then pic=ed up on improving customer confidence only to crash off again at close.&n=sp; China has reduced the deposits required from home buyers for the secon= time in 6 months in an attempt to boost sliding house prices, which should have knock on effects in the copper and=nickel markets. Nickel continues its slide as CTA funds have s=ld off heavily on the supply crunch failing to materialize and demand from=the stainless steel market evaporating. Nickel ore supplies are also returning from the Philippines as the rainy s=ason ends, adding further supply pressure. Chinese NPI producers are=cutting production, selling stocks or attempting to secure loans on the ba=k of stocks in warehouses. Rio Tinto have resolved the their tax dispute with the Mongolian government over therOyu Tolgoi copper mine but financing still needs to be negotiated over pha=e II of the development there. Zambia's Mining and finance min=sters have indicated that they may consider temporarily reverting to the old tax regime or making deals on a mine by m=ne basis as the IMF applaud their efforts to compromise and encouraged the= to implement a transparent system that applies to all mines. Vietna= is expected to increase its aluminia output by 20% to 650kMT/year as its first plant reaches full capacity this=month.
Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.= kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888 kMT Shang=ai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 86.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks =re up 0.11% to 252 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are up 0.41% to 332 kMT.
Copper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.25%, =ickel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch
Upcoming Data
30/3-Chicago PMI-Surv 51.7%, Actual 46.3%, Prior =5.8%
30/3-US Consumer Confidence Index -Surv 96.=, Actual 101.3, Prior 96.4
Regards,
2
EFTA_R1_01374318
EFTA02371552
Prateek
Please=access the link for disclaimer:
http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html
&=bsp;
Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at
This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=.
Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such.