Early Tour 12.3.12
Good Morning ... Europe up 0-70 bps (Italy +0.94%, Greece +1.3%) ... ASX +0.57%, NKY +0.13%, KOSPI +0.37%, SHCOMP -1.03%, HSI -0.81%
EUR 1.3036 (+0.38%) JPY 82.11 (+0.45%) GBP 1.6064 (+0.32%) Spain 10yr 5.22% Italy 10yr 4.42% US 10yr 1.616%
Futures: Dow +27, Nasdaq +11, S&P +3 DXY $79.95 (-20c) Crude $88.83 (-8c) Gold $1719.10 (+$6.40) Copper -0.03% Silver +1.03%
China's official PMI Manufacturing out over the weekend comes in at 50.6 versus est 50.8 (50.2 prior). HSBC China PMI out overnight comes in at 50.5 versus est 50.4 (prior 49.5). But SHCOMP fails to rally and closes -1.03%. EU PMI Manufacturing #'s out today as well: Eurozone 46.2 (est 46.2), Germany 46.8 (est 46.8), France 44.5 (est 44.7), Italy 45.1 (est 46.0), Spain 45.3 (est 43.9), UK 49.1 (est 48.0), Sweden 43.2 (est 44.0), Denmark 56.7 (55.6 prior), Ireland 52.4 (52.1 prior), Greece 41.8 (41.0 prior), Russia 52.2 (52.9 prior). Greece announces debt buyback for up to €10 billion (offer to run until 5pm GMT on Dec 7, Dutch Auction for each series of designated bonds, subject to financing agreement with EFSF, etc) (details). Greek 10yrs have rallied to - 40c on the dollar and the rest of the periphery is seeing yields heading lower as well. EUR continues to tick up and currently 1.3037 last. Eurozone finance ministers meeting again today to further discuss Greece, Cyprus, Spain. No major updates on fiscal cliff talks with Geithner/Boehner making the rounds on the Sunday talk shows and both indicating very little willingness to compromise thus far (Politico). SPA's +3 handles = 1417.50 last.
"'US Markit PMI c 8:58am, ISM Manufacturing & Construction Spending @ 10am, Auto Sales © 5pm"'
***UBS Media & Communications Conference begins in NYC"'
• UBS near deal to pay $450M to settle accusations over manipulating interest rates (NYT)
• LDK Solar net narrowed q/q but cut sales forecast to $950-$1B from $1.1B-$1.5B
• Martin Marietta Materials to explore friendly offer this time for Vulcan Materials (WSJ)
• California port strike could cost economy $16 per day (NRF calling on Obama to intervene)
• Moody's downgrades ESM to Aal from Aaa to reflect France downgrade (Friday after close)
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• EADS confirms that key shareholders are discussing changes in shareholder structure (trading +2.2%)
• Chief executive of Rupert Murdoch's UK newspaper arm resigns unexpectedly (FT)
• French central bank governor says London should be deposed as Euro financial center (at)
• Aryzta (Swiss bakery) O1 sales rise +9.0% to E1.1 billion (confirms outlook) (trading -0.96%)
• Reed Elsevier breaking out on decent volume (no news out that we see) (trading +2.9%)
• ASOS: report out in Telegraph about AMZN launching premium fashion offering in the UK (link)
• Colruyt shares under pressure as H1 profit & margins miss estimates (COLR BB trading -2.3%)
• Lufthansa aims to cut long-haul unit costs by 10% by 2015 & 20% by 2025 (Bloomberg)
• Bahrain Telecom (Batelco) to buy Cable & Wireless Monaco business for $680 million
• French car registrations for November weaker at -22.9% (Renault -33.5%, Peugeot -23%)
• Spain's Rajoy says it may be "very complicated" to achieve 6.3% deficit to GDP target in 2012
• Merkel suggests may be willing to consider Greek debt write-off once they reach budget surplus (SiId)
• EU ministers may reach ECB oversight deal on December 4, officials say (Bloomberg)
• Macau casino revenue +7.9% y/y in November versus median analyst estimates +8.0%
• Australia near ytd highs ahead of RBA decision tomorrow (swaps show 84% chance of 25bps cut)
Leading European Sectors: Media +1.24%, Tech +0.85%, Construction +0.82% Lagging European Sectors: Retail -0.15%, Autos/Parts -0.10%, Telco +0.04%
SCMP fda approval — HOT new credit facility — PEOP 25c dividend
HFF special $1.52 div — DAL talks to buy Singapore Air Virgin stake — TESS cfo leaves
Secondaries (announced/priced): KIPS, TEG GY
IPO's: N/A
Key Research: Barcap upgrades DUK/NI/OFS & initiates BSMX (ew), Evercore initiates T (ew), Piper
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cuts CF & upgrades CF,
Key Research: GS upgrades EV and DELL (buy) & downgrades JNS/ELX/QLGC (sell's), DB upgrades IGTrrOT (buys), MS upgrades WSM
Key Research: Stifel upgrades WWAV, Bernsein downgrades EIX, JMP upgrades BSX, UBS downgrades TEVA, Nomuta cuts VZ
Key Research: ISI upgrades DLR/EDD/KRC (buy's) & downgrades UDR, BofA upgrades SDR LN, Baird upgrades CUBE
Key Research: MS downgrades KNIN VX & upgrades PWTN SW, Santander downgrades EOAN GR, BofA downgrades SLHN VX
Key Research: Santander upgrades ENEL IM, Swedbank downgrades YAR NO, DB upgrades FP FP, HSBC upgrades TLW LN
Key Research: RBC upgrades ERICB SS, DB upgrades ETI FP, Berenberg initiates JAZ SM, Investec downgrades UBM LN
Key Research: Raja initiates Prada (1913 HK) (mp), CS initiates ITX SM (up), Exane upgrades ARM LN, DB downgrades ROSA LN
Key Research: Berenberg downgrades SAN FP, Berenberg downgrades RBI AV & EBS AV, Berenberg initiates KBC BB (buy)
Reporting Pre-Open: CONN, LDK
Reporting Post-Close: CWST, PBY
Economic Data: Markit US PMI t 8:58am, ISM Manufacturing PMI / Construction Spending @ loam, Vehicle Sales © 5pm
Fed Speakers: Rosengren @ 12:15pm (New York Fed Conference), Bullard @ 1:40pm (Little Rock, AR)
Conferences: UBS Media & Communications (NYC), DB BioFEST (NYC), Dahlman Oil Services & E&P (NYC), Bofa Leveraged Finance (Boca Raton, FL)
Analyst/Investor Days: AH, KCG, HA, SLG, NRGY, DOW
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Non-Deal Roadshows: ACI, AMRE, BIOS, CKSW, CLX, CYOU, ECL, GRMN, KNL, OFG, PVTB, SOHU, STI, SWKS, SXL, TECD, TOT, WRLS, OGE
Shareholder Meetings: DQ, CXDC, KNXA, GEOY, FMAR, FNSR, AIRM,
Equity/Mixed Shelfs: OILT ($600M), NTAP, TBBK ($100M)
Other Newspaper Articles & Stories
Barron's cover: Discusses philanthropy in America Barron's
Barron's positive: Liberty Media (LMCA) Barron's, Transocean (RIG) Barron's, HomeTrust Bancshares (HTBI) Barron's
WSJ cautious: Netffix (NFLX) WSJ
• Global Gas Push Stalls WSJ
• Rain May Spoil Spain's Parade WSJ
• SEC Chief Delayed Rule Over Legacy Concerns WSJ
• Lender Risks High Interest From Regulators WSJ Heard on the Street
• Banks Push Harder to Trim the Fat WSJ
• Rival Likely to Explore Friendly Vulcan Bid WSJ
• Greece Offers to Buy Back Debt WSJ
• Morgan Stanley Trader Faces Inquiry on Possible Manipulation NYT
• UBS Is Reported to Be Near a Deal on Rate Rigging NYT
• Some Analysts Doubt Dire Predictions on Tax Increase Fallout NYT
• DVR Use One Factor in Networks' Low Ratings NYT
• Rochdale rivals courting star analyst Bove NY Post
• Productivity in mining a disaster The Australian
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• HSBC to start selling £25bn of toxic US debt Telegraph
• French bank governor calls for London to be sidelined as Europe's financial hub Telegraph
• Starbucks first to cave in over tax row Telegraph
• Obama warns of 'Scrooge Christmas' if Congress fails to act on fiscal cliff Guardian
• Ukraine signs $1bn gas deal with mystery Spanish executive Guardian
• LED chip technology to enter plateau period DigiTimes
Key Events This Week
Tuesday: ISM New York, EU FinMin meeting, Bank of Canada rates, China HSBC Services PMI, Wells Pipeline, MLP, and Energy Conference (NYC), Earnings (AZO, BIG, MTN, BMO CN)
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, US non-manufacturing ISM & factory orders, Ireland Budget 2013, Wells Real Estate Securities Conference (NYC), Earnings (BF.B, SAI)
Thursday: ECB & BOE rate decisions, Spanish bond auction 2-7-10yr, Challenger Job Cuts, RBC Consumer & Retail Investor Day (NYC), Earnings (HRB, LULU, TD CN, PANW)
Friday: November Employment Report, Michigan Confidence, Earnings (BNS CN)
Saturday: China CPI & PPI
Sunday: China retail sales/industrial production/FAI
Key Events on the Horizon
December 12 — FOMC rate decision
December 22-January 20 — US Congress scheduled to adjourn
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January 30 — Launch date for RIM's Blackberry 10
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