Fwd: FYI
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From: Andrea Pfanzelter|
Date: May 30, 2014 at 8:05:54 AM GMT+2
To: Terje Rod-Larsen
Subject: FYI
Although from the outside the current picture looks bleak, below the radar it is not that bad in the polio context:
For the past few weeks, talks between the Pak Govt and Taliban are at a standstill, while (a) the Taliban sort out a rebellion in its ranks (with Pak intel supporting a breakaway faction from a tribe which provides the bulk of Taliban fighters) and (b) the Pak Army carries out "strikes plus" on North Waziristan -- aimed at both the rest of the "bad" Taliban groups as well as the Chinese Uighur militants (at the request of China).
These 2 seemingly negative developments could have a positive effect on polio, in that: (c) IPI has discussed with Pak Army contacts the possibility of setting up polio-drops arrangements as tribesmen flee the air strikes into settled areas(downside is that if this is not done, more cases of infection will arrive) and (d) the breakaway Taliban Group is being steered by Pak Intel to assume control in South Waziristan -- if this comes about, this group will not oppose anti-polio drops as IPI has been assured via interlocutors.
The fact that the CIA has not carried out a drone strike since Dcc 2013 (though the Pak Army has!) plus the recent White House announcement that the CIA will not use an immunization campaign as cover for intel gathering -- both have been well-received by the Taliban, they see both as a victory for their position on drones & vaccination campaigns used for espionage -- as well as a vindication -- this, too, helps the polio situation indirectly!
The UAE grant of US$ 110 million for the tribal areas and frontier province is finally materializing and the Pak Army will treat this also on a priority basis.
The travel ban unless travellers have polio certificates is leading to yet another lucrative business in issuing genuine plus fake certificates!
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The highest echelons in the health structure are slowly realizing that the rosy figures being fed over the past few years were inaccurate.
The airstrikes are also forcing tribesmen to flee into Afghanistan -- where, it is hoped, they will fall within a polio eradication campaign.
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