FW: Turkey and CNH [C]
Jeffrey — we're following up our phone calls earlier this week with two trade ideas:
- Buy Turkey 5y CDS — currently @ —253
It seems Turkey has rallied recently on the back of the broader macro EM rally and FOMC dovishness, although fundamentally not much has changed in Turkey
General elections are taking place this weekend, which have created increased tension within Turkey and continue to generate headlines
Recent opinion polls still point to another hung parliament (additional details in attached DB research piece)
Outright short EM positions have cleaned up extensively and we believe it makes sense to slowly build out those positions
Cheap funding has resulted in large rise in corporate debt in Turkey, some of which has been funded in foreign currency
Turkey foreign reserves amongst lowest of EM countries, second only to Ukraine
- Revisiting CNH as we know you're generally bearish Asian currencies. Given vols and skew, indicative pricing for ly, USD/CNH 6.5 — 7.0 call spread:
Spot Ref: 6.3935 (pricing as of 10/27/15)
Leg 1: European Option Call
SOFL buys European USD Call on USD/CNH
Strike: 6.5
Notional: USD 10,000,000
Expiry: Thu 27-Oct-2016 (ly)
Premium: USD 287,100 (2.87%)
Delta: 53%
Strike vol: 6.24%
Leg 2: European Option Call
SOFL sells European USD Call on USD/CNH
Strike: 7.0
Notional: USD 10,000,000
Expiry: Thu 27-Oct-2016 (ly)
Premium: USD -127,100 (1.27%)
Delta: 24%
Strike vol: 9.15%
Net premium: USD 160,000 (1.60%)
Thank you,
Vahe
Vahe Stepanian
Assistant Vice President I Key Client Partners Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Tel.
Mobile
Email
All trade execution information contained herein is being provided as an accommodation at your request in advance of your receipt of the official trade confirmation(s). Additional trade detail information available upon request. The terms of the trade(s) may be subject to change prior to settlement, and therefore the official trade confirmation(s) and account statements issued by Deutsche Bank shall govern. Deutsche Bank is not responsible for any discrepancy between the informal execution report and the official trade confirmation(s) or account statements.
Intended to cc you, je called to tell me rich called the desk for pricing on yen/krw and was told likely get on Monday, he wasn't too happy, don't know what these guys are doing all day.
Original Message From: Paul Morris Sent: Friday, October 30, 2015 01:35 PM Eastern Standard Time To: Vahe Stepanian; Daniel Sabba Subject: RE: Turkey and CNH [C]
Classification: Confidential
Vahe sound like he is looking for pricing for long yen /short Korean won, let's get this to him today not Monday, he's looking to trade
thanks
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Private Bank
Office:
Cell: