RE: [I]
lets look at leveraged preferred or leveraged bonds.
please note
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Can you think about a list, perhaps getting 10 million to work
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Private Bank
Office:
Cell:
As discussed, we will socialize between us some HY bonds in addition to Petrobras.
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We will also send cocos from credit desk, bank preferred run from STG, and CLO mezz and equity from Och Ziff.
Paul — as discussed, please find a list of relevant ideas for Southern Financial on the back of the client's ask below. The CB&S desk analyst looking at CoCos will be sending us a few specific issues in the morning, which we will send along to you once available. In addition to Petrobras, I've attached a piece with top AWM Fixed Income ideas — pgs. 33-44 are specific to top HY ideas. We can highlight the most relevant ideas — planning on speaking to the desk tomorrow.
Give us a call if you have questions.
Thank you,
Vahe
- Buy Petrobras '17s. Rationale:
Since May 2015, Petrobras 10yr spreads have widened by —400bps and in September S&P downgraded Petrobras to BB
In October, domestic fuel prices increased and Petrobras announced significant capex and opex cuts for 2015 and 2016. These can be seen as positive signs for the company's future, but may not mitigate its large long term funding gap: Petrobras will need to roll $60bn and $104bn of debt maturities in the next four and nine years respectively and sovereign support is not guaranteed
DB's Brazil credit analyst believes that the company can meet its short term debt maturities through 2017 without resorting to direct support from the government. DB has revised its forecasts and has upgraded the 3.25% and 3.5% '17s to a Buy rating (please find attached DB Research report). The bonds are currently yielding 7.06% and 7.10% respectively
Petrobras is one of the largest integrated oil companies worldwide
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and aims to be one of top 5 globally by 2030
Indicative Terms (as of 11/17/2015):
Client buys PETBRA 3.250% Notes '17
Maturity 03/17/2017
Amount 0/S $1.6bn
Rating Ba2 / BB / BBB- (Mdy/S&P/Fitch)
Price 95.25
Mid Yield 7.06%
| Client buys PETBRA 3.500% Notes '17 | |
|---|---|
| Maturity | 02/06/2017 |
| Amount 0/S | $1.75bn |
| Rating | Ba2 / BB / BBB- (Mdy/S&P/Fitch) |
| Price | 95.875 |
| Mid Yield | 7.10% |
- As you already know, Och Ziff is coming to market with a new issue CLO, OZLM XIV. The desk is hoping to price ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, for settlement in December.
I've attached the manager pitchbook, but please also find a few high-level bullet points:
Och Ziff is a leading institutional asset manager with $46.1bn in AUM, established investment capability in all major markets and strong international presence with eight global offices
Launched in May 2012, Institutional Credit Strategies (ICS), is Och-Ziff's asset management platform that investments in performing credit
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via CLOs and other customized solutions for clients
The ICS team is lead by the US portfolio manager, Donald Young, and the European portfolio manager, Adeel Shafiqullah. Together they source and execute investment ideas across a broad range of sectors, industries, and regions
This group has successfully closed 13 U.S. CLOs with a total transaction value of —$7bn
0ZLM XIV is anticipated to close mid/late December
Indicative pricing table:
Class
Rating (Moody's /Fitch)
Par amount
WAL
Coupon
DM
Price
A-1 Notes
[Aaa]/[AAA]
[318,750,000]
[6.1]
L + [1.57] %
L + [1.57] %
Par
A-2 Notes
[Aa2]/[AA]
[61,500,000]
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[7.8]
L + [2.30]%
L + [2.30]%
Par
| B Notes |
|---|
| [A2]/[A] |
| [25,750,000] |
| [8.5] |
| L+ [3.15]% |
| L + [3.20] % |
| Par |
C Notes
[Baa3]/[BBB]
[30,250,000]
[9.1]
L + [4.35]%
L + [4.85]%
Mid 90s
| D Notes |
|---|
| [Ba3]/[BB] |
| [23,750,000] |
| [9.7] |
| L+ [6.35]% |
| L+ [7.85] % |
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High 90s
Equity
NR
[47,670,000]
N/A
N/A
L + mid teens
- Per your request, please find a run of bank $1000 bank preferreds:
| Nxt | Call | B Px A Px | B YTC | B CUR | Floats | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXP | 5.20 | 11/15/19 | 98-99 | 5.518 | 5.259 | +342.8 | S 2MM |
| AXP | 4.90 | 03/15/20 | 96-96 | 5.962 | 5.104 | +328.5 | S 5MM |
| BAC | 5.20 | 06/01/23 | 93-94 | 6.231 | 5.539 | +313.5 | S 2MM |
| BAC | 5.125 | 06/17/19 | 96-97 | 6.150 | 5.297 | +338.7 | S 5MM |
| BAC | 6.25 | 09/05/24 | 100-101 | 6.118 | 6.196 | +370.5 | |
| BAC | 6.50 | 10/23/24 | 104-105 | 5.810 | 6.205 | +417.4 | |
| BAC | 8.00 | 01/30/18 | 103-104 | 6.382 | 7.748 | +363 | |
| BAC | 8.125 | 05/15/18 | 103-104 | 6.467 | 7.831 | + 364 | S 2MM |
| BAC | 6.10 | 03/17/25 | 100-100 | 6.063 | 6.085 | +3.898 | |
| BK | 4.95 | 06/20/20 | 98-99 | 5.227 | 5.006 | + 342 | S 3MM |
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| BK | 4.50 | 06/20/23 | 92-93 | 5.692 | 4.865 | + 246 | Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| с | 6.30 | 05/15/24 | 97-98 | 6.691 | 6.462 | + 342 | |
| Nxt Call | B Px A Px | B YTC | B CUR | Floats | Notes | ||
| с | 6.125 | 11/15/20 | 100-100 | 6.007 | 6.095 | +447.8 | MKT 5x2 |
| с | 5.95 N | 08/15/20 | 98-99 | 6.318 | 6.041 | + 409.5 | |
| C | 5.95 | 01/30/23 | 97-98 | 6.365 | 6.095 | + 407 | |
| с | 5.95 | 05/15/25 | 95-95 | 6.651 | 6.255 | +390.5 | Mkt 3x2 |
| C | 5.90 | 02/15/23 | 97-98 | 6.312 | 6.044 | +423 | |
| C | 5.875 | 03/27/20 | 98-98 | 6.372 | 5.987 | + 405.9 | Mkt 3MM |
| с | 5.80 | 11/15/19 | 97-98 | 6.449 | 5.934 | + 409.3 | |
| с | 5.35 | 05/15/23 | 93-94 | 6.459 | 5.722 | + 347 | |
| COF | 5.55 | 06/01/20 | 99-100 | 5.613 | 5.564 | +380 | |
| FITB | 4.90 | 09/30/19 | 93-94 | 6.764 | 5.227 | +313 | Q |
| FITB | 5.10 | 06/30/23 | 90-91 | 6.668 | 5.620 | + 303 | |
| GS | 0 | 12/18/15 | 71-72 | 582.643 | 5.585 | + 76.75 | |
| Nxt Call | B Px A Px | B YTC | B CUR | Floats | Notes | ||
| GS | 5.375 | 05/10/20 | 99-99 | 5.566 | 5.416 | + 392 | |
| GS | 5.70 | 05/10/19 | 100-101 | 5.619 | 5.686 | + 388 | |
| JPM | 7.90 | 04/30/18 | 102-103 | 6.604 | 7.679 | + 347 | S 3MM |
| JPM | 6.75 | 02/01/24 | 107-108 | 5.595 | 6.279 | + 378 | |
| JPM | 5.00 | 07/01/19 | 96-97 | 6.092 | 5.181 | + 332 | |
| JPM | 6.10 | 10/01/24 | 100-101 | 5.988 | 6.055 | + 333 |
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| JPM | 6.125 | 04/30/24 | 100-101 | 6.010 | 6.079 | + 333 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 5.15 | 05/01/23 | 95-96 | 5.948 | 5.407 | + 325 | |
| JPM | 6.00 | 08/01/23 | 100-101 | 5.916 | 5.970 | + 330 | |
| JPM | 5.30 | 05/01/20 | 99-100 | 5.427 | 5.327 | +380 | |
| MS | 5.55 | 07/15/20 | 99-99 | 5.703 | 5.585 | +381 | S 2MM |
| MS | 5.45 | 07/15/19 | 97-98 | 6.302 | 5.604 | + 361 | S 3MM |
| Nxt Call | B Px A Px | B YTC | B CUR | Floats | Notes | ||
| PNC | 4.85 | 06/01/23 | 94-95 | 5.846 | 5.160 | + 304 | Q |
| PNC | 6.75 | 08/01/21 | 108-109 | 5.112 | 6.250 | + 368 | |
| STI | 5.625 | 12/15/19 | 100% - 100% | 5.589 | 5.618 | +386 | |
| STT | 5.25 | 09/15/20 | 100-100 | 5.218 | 5.243 | + 359.7 | |
| WFC | 5.875 | 06/15/25 | 104-105 | 5.237 | 5.609 | +399 | |
| WFC | 7.98 | 03/15/18 | 106-106 | 5.195 | 7.528 | + 377 | |
| WFC | 0.00 | 12/18/15 | 97층-97종 | 44.251 | 5.720 | +93 | |
| WFC | 5.90 | 06/15/24 | 101-101 | 5.713 | 5.827 | + 311 |
Thanks give us a call when you free up
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Private Bank
Office:
Cell:
Paul — just returned your call. Give me a call at your convenience @
