FW: Turkey and CNH [C]
Jeffrey — we're following up our phone calls earlier this week with two trade ideas:
- Buy Turkey 5y CDS — currently @ —253
• It seems Turkey has rallied recently on the back of the broader macro EM rally and FOMC dovishness, although fundamentally not much has changed in Turkey
• General elections are taking place this weekend, which have created increased tension within Turkey and continue to generate headlines
- Recent opinion polls still point to another hung parliament (additional details in attached DB research piece)
• Outright short EM positions have cleaned up extensively and we believe it makes sense to slowly build out those positions
• Cheap funding has resulted in large rise in corporate debt in Turkey, some of which has been funded in foreign currency
- Turkey foreign reserves amongst lowest of EM countries, second only to Ukraine
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
Intended to cc you, je called to tell me rich called the desk for pricing on yen/krw and was told likely get on Monday, he wasn't too happy, don't know what these guys are doing all day.
-----Original Message-----
From: Paul Morris
Sent: Friday, October 30, 2015 01:35 PM Eastern Standard Time
To: Vahe Stepanian; Daniel Sabba
Subject: RE: Turkey and CNH [C]
Classification: Confidential
Vahe sound like he is looking for pricing for long yen /short Korean won, let's get this to him today not Monday, he's looking to trade thanks
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Private Bank