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J
Jeffrey Epstein May 20, 2013 4:26 PM
To
ehud barak

>>>   Wait Until Its Too Late,-  seems to be the  new fashionable  foreign policy .The unfolding tragedy in Syria has already cost 75  thousand precious lives and millions displaced. . The complex dilemmma recently illustrated in bright colors , by the recent juxtapostion of the evidence of  nerve agents  being  used by the Assad regime against its own,  alongside  the vivid  videos of executions and  canibalisms  carried out  in the name of the rebel  God .   Though it appears red lines have been  crossed , the world  still hungers for waits for a  coordinated plan of action.
>>>The human suffering has been   staggering.  In a region where the pursuit of happiness often takes a back seat to the pursuit of revenge ,  the very continuation of the bloodletting will be a strong driving force for sectarian  killings for many years to come.   In addition,  the conflict already has  become a  powerful magnet for  various extremist groups  greatly increasing  the odds of  the  post Assad Syria ending up, at best ,  as  Lebanon , a failed state,  or  further down the failed line as a somolia
>>> Another factor , often overlooked  is  the liklihood  of the  much wider use of chemical weapons  with every unpunished round of  its actual use. This is as a direct consequnece of   the  psychological thresholds being    more easily breeched as  impact of external deterrence wanes .  With it comes the undenialble increased prospect of chemical weapons in the hands of terrorist groups, as the internal civil war sparks a much wider regional conflict. This  could be  as a direct  result of Syrian attempts to transfer advanced weapon systems to Hezbollah . Israel cannot simply wait until its too late.
>>>  Often overlooked but of  paramount concern should be the  strategic distraction caused by the intensive ,risky and resource demanding attention needed in  dealing  effectively with the Syrian crisis.  We cannot take our eyes off the ball.  That nuclear ball is moving toward goal in the hands of the iranian military.
>>> Assad's armed forces are  weak, and heavily affected by the attrition and    infighting .
Though there are many players   on the world stage that  can destroy his airforce and air defence within a relatively short timeframe. that will not  end the fighting or secure the CW arsenal. When one considers the alternatives which have  been raised so far - the :no- fly zone  imposed by US, Nato orTurkish forces,  the " cordon sanitaire'" for refugees along the Turkish and Jordanian borders or the US or Israeli attacks on the cw storage facilites. I beleive that the shortest and best plan currently  lies in the hands of  Moscow.  As a result of wait until its too late strategy ,the wests best winning tactics are no longer availble, 
>>>
>>>  I strongly beleive that the Kremlin has at its disposal the leverages that can convince Assad to  eventually leave and to stop fighting immediately . The Russian leaders are  clever and fully understand that Assad has and lost legitimacy.It is nothard to asses why they are reluctant to say it out  loud at this juncture .If we want to see an end to the near term  fighting and do not want to see Jabhat al Nosra or the likes running Syria .likely massacres of Alawites and a no man's land in Syria ,we need Russia. Russia leading and others  less accustomed to following , supporting her . In a  way ,the  mirror image of what happened in Libya, where Russia was asked to support  the effort lead by the Europeans and backed by the US..
>>> The Kremlin ,for more than forty years,hs invested a lot of political capital,financial resources and prestige in the Assads dynasty.They still do. Their readiness to keep their commitment to give him SA300 AD and improved radars for the Yakhont land  to sea missile systems is  troubling  . In the past they have  trained and equipped the Syrians,provided intelligence gathering capabilities and   know the CW unit generals by thier  first names .
They perceive the naval outpost in Tartous and Latakia as strategically important  and t are making an effort ,against our wishes  to protect those assets.We need to  be realistic. The challenge is not to educate Russia.  they can't seem to  educate us/ The real challenge for both of us  is to  end the massacrewhile maintaing the the capability to later help  remove Assad  from power. be achieved Russians  should take  a leading role. Howver  I beleive that a stiff  price will need to be paid  for their  involvment  ie  naval rights etc.
>>> The Russians  are an important  world power with special relevance to Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus.They like everone else  have their own interests and perspectives .This will need to  be taken into account   Russia might want on the negotiateing  other issues from MD, to other points of difference with the US or its allies.
>>>To be fairminded , Putin  has behaved in a very responsible way  when it came to the  supply of  advanced air defence systems to Iran. and  even as of now Syria is still several months from having  its SA300 systems  operational.Keeping in mind that these are in no way invincinblel
>>> it is my judgment that giving Russia the opportunity to lead and hopefully succeed in  such an effort can  help shape, not just Syria but  a new Russian attitude towards cooperation on  the world stage .
>>>  Secretary Kerry's recent  trip to Russia has not yet yielded this result.It was however an important visit that proves the sincerity of the Secretary and the Administration. I believe  strongly that  so far, Iran is the beneficiary of this crisis, but Russia holds a uniquely powerful  position that I sincerely hope  it will not squander , and the U.S waits.
>

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