Re: FW: UBS Business Jet Monthly
any bbj's for sale
--- Lesley Groff lesley@nysgllc.com wrote:
From: Sean J. Lancaster
[mailto:bristolgv@earthlink.net]
Sent: Tuesday, March 07, 2006 11:25 AM
To: rbm@saksinc.com; 'Alan Goldman'; 'Alex Hsu'; Amy
Lopez; 'Bart Cohen';
'Becky Merrill '; 'Bill Houston'; 'Bill McCleod';
'Candace J. Covington ';
'Christian Kennedy'; colin.clark@gulfstream.com;
'Dave Rodgers'; 'David M.
Zucchero '; 'Doug Kelly'; 'Ed McNair'; 'Eileen M.
Gleimer Esq.'; 'Helen
Kim'; 'Jay Jordan'; 'Ken Gilman'; 'Kieth Christian';
'Lesley Taylor'; 'Mark
Ringel'; 'McLemore, Samantha'; 'Pete Seidlitz'; 'Rob
Zeitinger'; 'Royce L.
Stevens'; 'Stacey DeRocher'; 'Tim Ritchie
(Tritchie@limited.com)'; 'Tim
Stehle (Tstehle@limited.com)'; 'Wally Andrushenko'
Subject: FW: UBS Business Jet MonthlyMarch Report
Best regards,
Sean J. Lancaster
Bristol Associates Inc.
1-540-665-5135
1-540-533-8183 Mobile
1-202-682-4000 main office
1-540-665-5136 fax
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From: David.Strauss@ubs.com
[mailto:David.Strauss@ubs.com]
Sent: Tuesday, March 07, 2006 10:50 AM
To: David.Strauss@ubs.com
Subject: UBS Business Jet Monthly
Total used inventory increases, younger
inventories decline - Total
used inventory levels increased in January,
following seven months of steady
decline, although inventories of younger aircraft
held to the lowest
absolute level since 2001. We view the increase in
inventories as likely
temporary and expect a further decline followed by
gradual pricing
improvement.Fractional sales decline, aircraft deliveries
remain strong - In the
fractional market, rolling three-month new share
sales declined year over
year on a difficult comp, while providers continued
to take on new aircraft.We believe cycle can extend at least through 2007
- We continue to
believe the upcycle can extend at least through
2007, given underlying
demand drivers, including strong international
growth, increasing
replacement demand, and an expanding addressable
market (card fractional).
We project 827 and 916 deliveries in 2006 and 2007,
respectively, before
VLJs.
- GD preferred bizjet name; BEAV also likely to
benefit - We believe
GD (Buy 2, RRD) is likely to exceed expectations and
its valuation remains
attractive, trading at 16x our 2006 EPS estimates.
We also believe B/E
Aerospace (Buy 2) can benefit significantly from
higher business jet
volumes.Please see our full report attached.
David
<<BizJets_Rpt030606.pdf>>
David Strauss
U.S. Aerospace & Defense Research
UBS
(212) 713-6185
david.strauss@ubs.comThis communication is issued by UBS AG or an
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