FW: Bizjet Monthly/NBAA Preview -Still Flying High Among Credit Market Concerns
From: Sean J. Lancaster [mailto:slancaster@bristolassociates.com]
Sent: Friday, September 21, 2007 8:25 AM
To: '(rbm@saksinc.com)'; 'Alan Goldman'; 'Alex Hsu'; 'Amy Lopez'; 'Bart Cohen'; 'Becky Merrill '; 'Bill Houston'; 'Bill McCleod'; 'Candace J. Covington'; 'Christian Kennedy'; colin.clark@gulfstream.com; 'Dave Rodgers'; 'David M. Zucchero '; 'Doug Kelly'; 'Ed McNair'; 'Eileen M. Gleimer Esq.'; 'Helen Kim'; 'Jack Gulbin'; 'Jay Jordan'; 'Josh Tarnow'; 'Ken Gilman'; 'Kieth Christian'; Lesley Groff; 'Mark Ringel'; 'McLemore, Samantha'; 'Pete Seidlitz'; 'Rob Zeitinger'; 'Royce L. Stevens'; 'Stacey DeRocher'; 'Tim Ritchie (Tritchie@limited.com)'; 'Tim Stehle (Tstehle@limited.com)'; 'Wally Andrushenko'
Subject: FW: Bizjet Monthly/NBAA Preview -Still Flying High Among Credit Market Concerns
Updated monthly report
Best regards
Sean J.
Lancaster
Bristol Associates
Inc.
1-540-665-5135
direct
1-202-682-4000 ext 1130
Main Office
1-540-533-8183
1-540-301-0050
FAX
From:
David.Strauss@ubs.com [mailto:David.Strauss@ubs.com]
Sent: Friday, September 21, 2007 8:20
AM
To:
David.Strauss@ubs.com
Subject:
Bizjet Monthly/NBAA Preview -Still Flying High Among Credit Market
Concerns
Look
forward to seeing many of you at NBAA next week.
- Index lower at
57: Our Business Jet Market Index came in at 57, 9% below
our prior survey, but in line with seasonally low scores from prior summer
surveys. Our index continues to indicate incremental improvement, with an
index score greater than 50 representing incremental strengthening bizjet
market conditions.
- Credit woes not hitting
bizjets: Nearly 80% of survey respondents noted no adverse
impact from recent credit market woes. Respondents noted a still strong
overall market, but our index was affected by seasonally weaker customer
interest and a more negative view of future business conditions, almost
entirely from domestic respondents. While less optimistic, most still think
market can hold current levels over the next 12 months.
- Inventories remain at low
levels: Total used inventories decreased in August while
young used inventories (10 years in age or less) increased, but both remain at
low levels as a percentage of the installed base. The average asking price for
a used business jet decreased slightly in August, but is 3% higher from the
prior year.
- NBAA Convention September
25-28: We will look to gauge the impact of weak credit
markets and the outlook for the sector at the upcoming NBAA Convention in
Please see
our full report attached.
David
<<BizJets_Rpt092107.pdf>>
David
Strauss
UBS Investment
Research
(212) 713-6185
david.strauss@ubs.com
From: Sean J. Lancaster [mailto:slancaster@bristolassociates.com]
Sent: Friday, September 21, 2007 8:25 AM
To: '(rbm@saksinc.com)'; 'Alan Goldman'; 'Alex Hsu'; 'Amy Lopez'; 'Bart Cohen'; 'Becky Merrill '; 'Bill Houston'; 'Bill McCleod'; 'Candace J. Covington'; 'Christian Kennedy'; colin.clark@gulfstream.com; 'Dave Rodgers'; 'David M. Zucchero '; 'Doug Kelly'; 'Ed McNair'; 'Eileen M. Gleimer Esq.'; 'Helen Kim'; 'Jack Gulbin'; 'Jay Jordan'; 'Josh Tarnow'; 'Ken Gilman'; 'Kieth Christian'; Lesley Groff; 'Mark Ringel'; 'McLemore, Samantha'; 'Pete Seidlitz'; 'Rob Zeitinger'; 'Royce L. Stevens'; 'Stacey DeRocher'; 'Tim Ritchie (Tritchie@limited.com)'; 'Tim Stehle (Tstehle@limited.com)'; 'Wally Andrushenko'
Subject: FW: Bizjet Monthly/NBAA Preview -Still Flying High Among Credit Market Concerns
Updated monthly report
Best regards
Sean J.
Lancaster
Bristol Associates
Inc.
1-540-665-5135
direct
1-202-682-4000 ext 1130
Main Office
1-540-533-8183
1-540-301-0050
FAX
From:
David.Strauss@ubs.com [mailto:David.Strauss@ubs.com]
Sent: Friday, September 21, 2007 8:20
AM
To:
David.Strauss@ubs.com
Subject:
Bizjet Monthly/NBAA Preview -Still Flying High Among Credit Market
Concerns
Look
forward to seeing many of you at NBAA next week.
- Index lower at
57: Our Business Jet Market Index came in at 57, 9% below
our prior survey, but in line with seasonally low scores from prior summer
surveys. Our index continues to indicate incremental improvement, with an
index score greater than 50 representing incremental strengthening bizjet
market conditions.
- Credit woes not hitting
bizjets: Nearly 80% of survey respondents noted no adverse
impact from recent credit market woes. Respondents noted a still strong
overall market, but our index was affected by seasonally weaker customer
interest and a more negative view of future business conditions, almost
entirely from domestic respondents. While less optimistic, most still think
market can hold current levels over the next 12 months.
- Inventories remain at low
levels: Total used inventories decreased in August while
young used inventories (10 years in age or less) increased, but both remain at
low levels as a percentage of the installed base. The average asking price for
a used business jet decreased slightly in August, but is 3% higher from the
prior year.
- NBAA Convention September
25-28: We will look to gauge the impact of weak credit
markets and the outlook for the sector at the upcoming NBAA Convention in
Please see
our full report attached.
David
<<BizJets_Rpt092107.pdf>>
David
Strauss
UBS Investment
Research
(212) 713-6185
david.strauss@ubs.com