FW: The Rockwood Report, January 2008

 

 

 

I’m sitting here Christmas morning penning my thoughts about the corporate aircraft market in 2008. Lest you think this makes me a curmudgeon with no life, let me assure you, your assessment is correct! However, the dogs, and one or two of the cats, love me. This, coupled with my wife’s acceptance of the fact that she can improve me no further, leaves me a contented man.

 

So, where are we going? The watch word for 2008 will be “softening”. I could list 17 reasons, but only one is necessary: falling corporate earnings.

 

Yes, I hear other pundits preach the “new paradigm” story, but just as you don’t take a 90 degree cut at the omni, neither do markets take 90 degree turns from their historical behavior. The U.S. corporate aircraft market, and the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. economy in general may play a lesser role today than 10 years ago. But; when U.S. corporate aircraft buyers start slowing down, so too will the rest of the world.

 

In sum, we have been here before with raging order books and wildly escalating prices. Those of you old enough, just think 1980. And, as before, there will be a correction, and this correction will begin in 2008. It might be softer, and it might be harsher. But it will be.

 

Still in all, what we do for a living ain’t such a bad thing.  

 

Bob Rockwood

202-682-4000 (Main phone number)

540-554-8113 (Direct phone number)

racersblue@earthlink.net (Direct email)

www.bristolassociates.com (Web address)

 

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