Article 4.
The Christian Science Monitor
Libya endgame: Lessons for Syria's protesters
Bilal Y. Saab
August 23, 2011 -- As the Libyan opposition's fight appears to be nearing a triumphant close, with rebels having taken over Muammar Qaddafi’s compound in Tripoli, the showdown between largely peaceful protesters and regime forces in Syria rages on and shows no signs of abating. But Mr. Qaddafi’s ouster could help turn the tide for the Syrian opposition — especially if it takes the lessons from Libya to heart.
One would assume that the escalating pressure on Qaddafi’s regime would have been enough to shake Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and push him to stop the bloodbath against his own people. Forget about it. With his speech on Sunday (when all signs pointed to Qaddafi’s imminent downfall) in which he rebuffed Western calls to resign, Mr. Assad is now more defiant than ever. His message is unambiguous: Extensive international pressure notwithstanding, he is not going down without a fight.
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The popular uprisings in Libya and Syria (and elsewhere in the Middle East) have similar root causes — decades-old authoritarian politics, harsh political repression, denial of freedoms, and bad economics — but they have taken different paths, which may lead them to very different ends.
Commentators and analysts have been quick to state that Assad’s days are numbered. That may be true. Facing international isolation of unprecedented scale and a growing protest movement at home that
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