Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 28 March 2013
Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com
Global Economic Outlook Summary
Real GDP Real GDP % over a year ago % over previous period, saar 2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q12)— 4Q 12 1013 2013 3013 The Americas United States 1.8 2.2 18 T 23 3.1 O17 237 15 2.0 Canada 2.6 1.8 1.4 2.1 07 0.6 16 1.6 2.0 Latin America 42 2.6 34 3.8 2.0 3.4 3.0 40 42 Argentina 8.9 1.9 3.0 1.5 3.2 5.2 3.5 3.0 1.6 Brazil 27 09 3.0 40 1.5 2.2 27 37 44 Chile 59 56 55 45 5.0 6.1 6.0 54 48 Colombia 6.6 40 45 5.0 29 14 42 55 55 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 40 45 6.3 5.5 5.0 3.0 3.0 Mexico 39 3 3.6 3.6 1.5 3.1 39) 45 46 Peru 6.9 6.3 6.0 6.5 6.9 2.5 5.0 70 75 Uruguay 57 3.5 37 40 18 23 40 3.0 5.0 Venezuela 42 5.6 2.0 3.0 5.2 57 40 2.0 2.0 Asia/Pacific 47 48 48 48 tT 29 54 §30 557 53 Japan 0.5 2.0 1.3 1.2 3.7 0.2 3.0 3.2 2.5 Australia 24 3.6 27 3.2 2.6 24 24 27 37 New Zealand 1.4 2.5 25 29 07 6.1 21 3.5 2.0 Asia ex Japan 14 6.2 67 67 5.9 a7 67+ 69T 69 China 93 78 8.2 8.0 8.0 94 8.0 8.2 8.2 Hong Kong 49 1.4 3.8 3.6 3.2 49 3.5 3.5 5.0 India 6.2 5.0 58 6.5 3.5 47 64 6.5 53 Indonesia 6.5 6.2 57 53 53 6.9 5.0 6.0 6.0 Korea 36 T 20 2.8 39 0.2 15 34 40 45 Malaysia 51 56 517 54 5.2 79 50 45 45 T Philippines a) 6.6 53 53 70 6.1 45 49 53 Singapore 5.2 13 227 367 46 3.3 45b 207 367 Taiwan 41 1.3 42 39 39 13 40 40 42 Thailand 0.4 6.4 54 45 6.1 15.0 45 45 5.0 Africa/Middle East Israel 46 3.1 3.1 33 27 24 3.2 2.8 3.6 South Africa 3.5 2.5 2.6 3.6 1.2 2.1 27 28 3.4 Europe 20T O17 01 17 0.5 -1.6 0.3 0.3 1.2 Euro area 1.5 05 0.6 1.2 0.3 23 0.5 0.5 0.5 Germany 3.1 0.9 0.6 21 0.9 2.3 15 1.0 1.8 France 17 0.0 07 1.0 o6T Alb 413 -13 0.0 Italy 0.5 24 -1.6 07 0.8 3.f -1.5 15 0.0 Spain 0.4 -14 17 0.5 -1.3 3.1 -1.8 -18 0.8 United Kingdom O9T O2T 08 1.9 390 A004 05 1.0 1.5 Emerging Europe 48 24 23 3.4 13 15 0.2 3.1 3.9 Bulgaria 18 0.8 12 17 a . a a Czech Republic 1.9 13 0.2 1.9 -1.8 07 0.1 0.5 1.0 Hungary 1.6 17 07 1.4 -14 3.4 0.3 03 1.2 Poland 43 2.0 1.3 2.6 1.2 0.8 41 1.6 23 Romania 2.2 0.3 1.9 23 -1.0 03 08 ag) 59 Russia 43 3.4 2.5 3.6 2.2 25 0.0 40 48 Turke 8.5 2.6 37 45 .. = = .. Global 3.1 24 24 3.1 2.1 16 2.6 27 3.0 Tt Developed markets 14 1.2 0.9 18 0.9 O6T 147 11 1.6 Emerging markets 6.1 47 5.1 5.4 4.2 5.7 48) 557 57
Source: J.P. Morgan
4013
2.5 2.1 3.7 15 3.9 45 5.1 40 40 6.0 5.0 2.0
5.4 2.9 2.6 44 6.9 8.2 5.0 5.6 5.5 45 5.0 5.3 41 43 5.0
3.6 3.6
15 1.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.0 3.1 1.0 15 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.3 2.0 5.5
J.P Morgan
Consumer prices % over a year ago 1014 4Q12 2013
3Q12 4013
2.0 17 19 19 17 19 12 0.9 14 2.0 3.9 47 47 5.0 47 15 10.0 10.6 10.0 11.0 42 5.2 5.6 64 5.9 45 2.6 2.2 2.2 3.1 45 3.4 2.8 2.0 24 5.0 5.4 46 54 47 3.5 46 41 40 3.4 6.5 3.5 2.9 23 2.5 40 8.0 8.9 84 af 4.0 19.0 18.7 31.0 35.7
5.4 21 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.4 04 0.2 0.0 0.5 43 2.0 2.2 28 27 43 0.8 0.9 14 2.2 7.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 42 8.0 19 21 3.0 3.6 2.0 3.1 3.8 3.5 3.7 16 9.8 10.1 9.0 8.5 5.5 45 44 3.9 46 40 16 17 18 2.6 6.3 14 13 2.3 2.6 5.3 3.5 3.0 3.4 3.4 6.1 42 40 354 38 3.4 29 18 13 23 45 2.9 3.2 42 40
3.2 18 1.6 19 2.2 3.8 5.4 5.6 6.2 5.7
18 3.2 3.0 2.5 24 15 25 2.3 16 15 2.5 24 2.0 16 1.6 15 23 17 11 1.2 1.0 34 2.6 17 18 0.0 19 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 24 21 28 2.9 3.0 6.1 5.7 5.5 48 2.0 3.3 2.8 2.2 24 15 6.4 5.4 29 2.8 2.8 3.9 2.9 1.0 18 1.6 41 48 6.3 5.1 3.5 6.0 6.5 6.8 5.5
= 9.0 6.8 67 6.3 3.3 25 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.1 17 17 16 1.6
5.6 40 41 43 44
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_030853