Investment Goldman
Management oH:
Spare Oil Production Capacity Looks Adequate Dikisten
4. US Crude Oil Production 2. Spare Capacity from April 2019 Production Level to 2018 Highest Production Levels
140 |
2.5 5 YY US crude production (LHS) ; 13 1.3 = US crude production (RHS) 20 + - 12 1.20 | 15 | a 1.00 - 13
1.0 + 10 2 3 z 0.80 { Ro} 2 i | a = & 95 | 89 2 = ™% = = 060 |
(Sep 2016) 8 0.40 | (0.5) | 7 0.2 0.20 | (1.0) + / 6 0.1 0.1 (1.5) J Lo5 0.00 T j ; j T Jan-13 Aug-13 Mar-14 Oct-14 May-15 Dec-15 Jul-16 Feb-17 Sep-17 Apr-18 Nov-18 lrag Kuwait Saudi UAE
= US oil production growth has matched or exceeded global demand growth over the past year, providing ample supplies to the market.
= In fact, OPEC had to cut production in late 2018 in order to reduce oversupply and arrest a fast decline in oil prices.
=" OPEC production could be increased back to 2018 highs if the market faced a shortage. Doing so would add 1.7 million b/d from main Middle Eastern OPEC members — more than Iran’s current export levels of around 0.5 million b/d.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, EIA, Bloomberg, OPEC. 1A HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026958