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Iranian Economy Hit Hard by Sanctions
Division
1. Iran Annualized Real GDP Growth and Inflation’ 2. Iranian Rial (Mid) to USD — Unofficial Market Rate
200,000
15 = =mReal GDP Growth CPI % YoY (Right) 60 51 180,000 - 10 - + | 40 460,000 _ IRR Weaker Sa Sa 140,000 - 5 - + 20 rs 120,000 - 3 oa ne} ¢ % 100,000 - 5/8/18 5 07 — 1 = 1 r r T +O > US announces 2 a PS JCPOA withdrawal < 80,000 - \ < 5 - + -20 60,000 - -6.0 77 40,000 - 10 r -40 20,000 - 15 - ~ -60 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17 Nov-18 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
" The IMF forecasts that Iranian real GDP growth in 2019 will be the weakest since 2012 at -6%, even as annualized inflation is running at around 50%.
The Iranian rial is trading near its all-time low against the US dollar, according to unofficial market rates. Since the end of 2017 the rial has depreciated by roughly -70%, compared to a -45% peak devaluation for the Turkish lira in 2018.
(1) 2019 inflation as of April 2019. 10 Source: Investment Strategy Group, IMF, Statistical Center of Iran, Haver, Bonbast, Bloomberg.
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