Eurasia Group: Investment Management
‘The Three Principal Players Have Different Perspectives” Division
National Security Advisor John Bolton
em
= “Bolton wants a crisis. He hopes to use the pressure as a maximum containment strategy to cripple the Iranian economy, increasing domestic opposition to the government, and making regime change more likely.
» ... ‘forcing’ the Americans to engage in military intervention for Bolton [is] a useful pretext to bombing key nuclear facilities that would set the Iranian program back years or more.”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
= “Pompeo wants the band back together. He doesn’t believe the United States can credibly induce the Iranians towards a more constructive posture by themselves, and accordingly wants a tougher, common front to force better terms from Iran from a position of strength.
= Pompeo hopes the Europeans and other allies will be more supportive of broader American pressure against Iran, and a multilateral coalition can come back together.”
President Trump
= “President Trump wants a breakthrough on his terms. He wants to use American power to force the Iranians into direct negotiations, and pull off a better agreement than Obama did.”
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Source: Investment Strategy Group, lan Bremmer, “EG Update,” Eurasia Group, May 20, 2019. Emphasis added.