lran: US Congress will not stop nuclear deal; EU already moving forward — fast. What’s next?
- P5+1 and Iran reached a deal. Big obstacle has been overcome: Enough US Senators support to ensure it can move forward.
- Saudi Arabia “supports” the deal. The Saudi king was in DC last month. US has quietly promised nuclear protection and massive weapons sales.
- Market implications of a deal are significant, especially for European corporates eager to get back into Iran marketplace (i.e. Italian PM Renzi already visited Tehran as has German FM).
- Iran wants to build 400 four & five star hotels in next five to ten years.
- But do not expect any significant oil export increase and/or sales into Iran for at least 8 — 10 months. Iran must first comply and set up systems for inspections.
Deutsche Bank Francis J. Kelly Global Public Affairs francis.j.kelly@db.com
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Real GDP Growth
IF Forecast percent
7 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 -] -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 caf
me MENA
Others m Turkey m= mg Japan & Korea g China & India mE =
2007 27008 2009 2010 2011 2012 27013 2014 Source: IIF; IMF
16
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026810