Global Asset Allocation The J.P. Morgan View 09 November 2012
Jan Loeys (1-212) 834-5874 jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com
J.P Morgan
Global Economic Outlook Summary
Real GDP
% over a year ago
Real GDP
% over previous period, saar
Consumer prices
% over a year ago
2011 2012 2013 1Q12 2012 3Q12 4Q12 1013 2013 3Q13 4Q11 2012 4Q12 2013 The Americas United States 18 2.2 f 2.0 3 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 2S 3.3 19 19 17 Canada 26 22 2.1 18 9 19 2.0 2.1 21 22 27 16 24 2.0 Latin America 42 29 3.9 2.8 24 3.91 45 34 37 40 12 6.0 6.0 6.8 Argentina 89 27 3.6 24 -3.2 5.0 10.0 2.0 25 2.0 96 99 10.0 11.0 Brazil 27 14 4 0.5 6 48 46 3.8 40 43 6.7 5.0 55 56 Chile 6.0 54 45 51 71 3.0 40 40 5.0 5.0 40 3.1 25 3.1 Colombia 5.9 43 45 0.9 67 28 3.8 42 53 55 3.9 34 3.1 3.2 Ecuador 8.0 5.0 40 42 48 3.0 55 5.0 3.0 3.0 55 51 54 54 Mexico 3.9 3.9 3.6 49 30 21+ 3.5 40 3.2 3.3 55 3.9 44 44 Peru 6.9 6.0 7.0 83 6.0 55 6.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 45 41 3.0 28 Uruguay 57 3) 40 11.8 21 9.0 -90 12.0 70 9.0 83 8.0 76 12 Venezuela 42 5.0 0.0 10.1 0.6 3.5 0.0 40 0.0 3.0 28.5 22.3 18.5 30.2 Asia/Pacific Japan -07 17 0.1 53 0.7 -3.5 -20 0 16 Le -03 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Australia 21 3.5 25 56 26 15 18 3.8 25 18 3.1 2 17 27 New Zealand 13 26 29 44 23 15 S5 3.7 3.3 2.0 8 0 14 1.8 Asia ex Japan 714 6.1 64 72 58 of 6.2. 6.3 65 68 49 3.9 34 3.9 T China 93 16 8.0 6.6 “1 a 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 46 29 22 3.3 Hong Kong 5.0 1.2 3.2 24 -0.4 2.0 25 3.5 35 5.0 57 42 34 34 India 65 56 6.0 6.1 53 Oo) 5.0 58 6.0 68 84 10.1 98 9.0 Indonesia 65 57 3.5 477 6.0. 4.9 T 3.0 3.0 40 40 41 45 3.9 2.2 Korea 3.6 23 3.2 25 1.1 0.6 35 3.0 40 45 40 24 19 3.0 Malaysia 51 5.0 t 3.7 t 58 59 25 3.5 T 3.5 T 3.0 3.5 3.2 d 1.1 2 Philippines 3.8 53 35 12.6 0.9 12 2 45 45 45 47 29 23 23 Singapore 49 154 2.54 95) -07 3.90 3.24 49. 1.6 T 41 55 53 4.5 T 4.0 T Taiwan 4.0 12 34 1.6 22 SS 3.8 55 3.5 3.8 4 Al 21 8 Thailand 0. 58 27 50.8 13.9 2.0 5 1.5 2.0 2.0 40 25 3.3 3.0 Africa/Middle East Israel 46 3.0 3. 3.1 34 2.0 28 49 6.1 6.1 25 6 13 § South Africa 3. 22 27 27 3.2 16 -13 54 3.3 3.6 6.1 57 56 58 Europe Euro area 5 04 0. 0.0 07 0.0 15 0.0 08 13 29 2) 2S 9 Germany Be 0 114 2.0 1.1 1.0 A104 1.0 2.0 25 26 2.1 2.1 8 France d 0.1 -0. 0.1 -0.1 00+ 15 -0.5 0.5 1.0 2.6 2.3 1g 3 Italy 067 23 057 327 33 A154 -20T 05 1.0 T 1.37 37 3.6 3.2 2.3 Spain 04 13 A7L 13 17 2 -2.5 3.0. 0.0. 0.0. 27 19 34 2.9 United Kingdom 0.9 0.0 18 -12 15 41 0.5 1.5 2.0 25 46 28 26 25 Emerging Europe 48 2.6 2.6 + 24 13 0.4. 1.8) 27. 24. 3.7 / 64 5.0 60. 63 T Bulgaria wi 0 1.5 a a a we a a a a a a a Czech Republic d -11 0.9 -3.1 -08 -12 -13 21 1.0 43 24 34 29 24 Hungary 6 12 0.5 3.5 -0.9 -1.0 -10 1.0 15 8 44 55 58 47 Poland 43 23 1.61 24 16 0.5 0.5 4 1.34 23. 3.0. 46 40 3.1 25 Romania 25 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.9 -24 12 1.2 -0.4 3.2 34 1.9 47 64 Russia 43 3.6 3.0 37 15 1.01 3.0 35 3.0 40 67 3.8 6.8 T 14 Turkey 85 28 37 92 94 7.3 7.5 T Global 3.0 24 25 3.0 18 2.0 1.9 24 27 3.2 3.8 28 28 28 Developed markets 3 1.2 1.0 17 04 0.6 0.2 0.9 14 9 27 18 1.9 1.6 Emerging markets 6.1 47 5.4 54 43 45. 5.0 + 5.4 52 56 OY 46 44 5.0 T
Source: J.P. Morgan
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_026577