TJP summary. Syria Iran is a game changer for Israel which requires them to completely rethink their threats, opportunities, strategies and interests. They can hunker down until more clarity or they act (big or small). There is a feeling that Israel has some acts they can take that would improve their positioning. Iran is the most immediate and big issue. Cannot have an Iran with nukes. Will lead to proliferation and significantly increased probability of nuclear event. Israel cannot sit by.
Dennis Ross, Jane Harmon and Walter Isaacson.
DR: Syria is most secure border that Israel has. Syria is unraveling is very significant. WMD could go to terrorists. Everyone should share concerns about Syria’s WMD. _ Hezbollah loses supplier, but unraveling of Syria has huge consequences for Jordan. Bibi is sensitive to Jordan issues. We need to have a very serious conversation with Bibi. (does Obama have the credibility reserve to have that conversation).
Jane H: Israelis misplayed this. They encouraged us not to play in Syria. They failed to anticipate Arab Spring and its consequences. Iran needs to be our focus. US narrative on ME is lost. So is Israel’s.
Walter: What effect on Israel : Palestine issues. Israel: Turkey issues. Will Israel think big? Can Israel coalesce parties around a solution to Iran issue. Can they do this by agreeing to a Palestinian solution.
DR: Now would be a moment for Israel to take a brave initiative with Turkey. Having an Islamic country as an ally may give cover to other Islamic countries. Israel and Turkey have common interests in Syria. This outcome is possible, Bibi needs assurances on Turkey’s response to an Israeli apology.
Jane. Maybe rise of Islamists in Egypt has some good aspects. If Muslim Bro keeps treaty (w Israel) then you have an Islamic country owning a treaty with Israel.
DR. Muslim Bro is very busy with domestic issues. But let’s remember who they are. Morsi sent letter to Shimon Perez. Perez said thank you and asked Morsi if Israeli’s could take letter public. Morsi said yes, it was written with that in mind. Perez made it public, Egyptian Muslim Bro got angry so Morsi denied he had ever sent a letter. Tunisia’s Muslim Bro are drafting a constitution that
makes it criminal to support a peace with Israel. 10
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025806