Investment Management
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance is Suggestive of Bubble Territory Division
Bitcoin Performance in the Context of ISG Bubble Indicator
100% 5
80% |
60% -
40% |
20% |
= A bubble-detection test that measures explosive price behavior based on the S&P 500’s price-to-dividend ratio! suggests only a 16% probability that the US stock market is currently in a bubble.
= Bitcoin’s price performance, on the other hand, suggests the asset has been in bubble territory since early this year.
(1) Peter C.B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi and Jun Yu, “Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S&P 500,” International Economic Review, Oct 28, 2015.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Bloomberg. 19
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