Laffer Associates
Game On [Updated 7/6/2016]
To put substance into the predictive power of state and local election results for presidential elections, | have graphically aligned state house results for all states with state senate results for all states and gubernatorial results for all states by year.
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State House
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2000
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State Senate
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Governors
Figure 7 State House, Senate, and Governorships (1976-1998: biannual, 2000-2016: annual)
3800
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2) = > fs} Ss
3200
2900
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Democrat 2000
@ @ @e Republican
1700 1400
1300 1200
1100
1000 900
800 Democrat = @ = « Republican 700
600
= = =» Republican
Democrat
Xe) Oo N lo oe) = wT MN fen) o © fo}] N w
NM MN «oO oe oe) fo?) fon] [op] fen) fan) Q OQ = =
oO Oo Oo Oo Oo oO Oo oO oOo oOo oOo oOo lew) oO
v v ¥ v v v v v N N N N N N Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NCSL
While by no means perfect, there is clearly a close correlation between a party’s success in state and local elections, and that If that close correlation holds in November of 2016, there will be a
party’s success in the upcoming presidential election.
Republican landslide.
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_025308