High yield corporate bonds
Spread USD HY (26 June): 660bps (last month: 660bps) UBS View USD HY spread target (6-month): 525bps
¢ US high yield (HY) bonds continue to offer attractive value; we expect high single-digit total returns over the next six months. We stick to our spread forecast of 525bps based on an ongoing recovery of the US economy, robust company balance sheets, rising earnings, and ongoing investor appetite for higher- yielding assets. US HY bonds remain our preferred asset class.
¢ Fundamental factors remain supportive. Despite the recent uptick in defaults, in the absence of a renewed US recession only a very gradual increase is to be expected. We forecast a modest rise in the trailing default rate to 3.5% at the end of the year from 3.1% in May. A heavy load of new issuance in the first three months of the year means that HY companies will be faced with a lower risk of failed refinancing going forward (e.g. in case of an unexpected economic slump).
e¢ We acknowledge that ongoing risk aversion could still cause spreads to widen somewhat in the short run. Investors who are able and willing to hold on to their HY position will likely benefit over 6 months.
@ Positive scenario USD HY spread target (6-month): 450bps ¢ In the positive economic scenario, a rally in high yield bonds and a return to pre-crisis spreads of about 400bps is likely. Benchmark yields would also rise, limiting HY returns to around 10%. European HY outperforms the US. & Negative scenario USD HY spread target (6-month): 1,200bps ¢ A global recession is a major risk for high yield bonds. Based on the more robust state of the corporate sector, we would not expect spreads to widen to 2008/09 peak levels above 2,000bps. Although short-term spikes are likely, due to liquidity suddenly drying up, we would expect a quick return to the "usual" recession-level spread of around 1,200bps.
Note: Scenarios refer to global economic scenarios (see slide 7)
What we're watching Credit quality/ default cycle
Why it matters
As long as corporate earnings increase and balance sheets remain backed by high cash levels and low debt ratios, the default rate will remain below its 5% long- term average.
For now, favorable conditions in the primary market have mainly been used for refinancing. More aggressive issuance activities should be monitored.
Bank lending provides an important source of funding. US banks relaxed standards slightly in 2Q. Key dates: early-July, ECB bank lending survey; late-July, Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey
New issuance
Bank lending standards
36 UBS
Preference: overweight
Recommendations
Tactical (6 months)
e US high yield corporate bonds offer an
attractive return outlook and should be
overweighted.
We prefer US over European issuers given
the poorer economic outlook in Europe
and the increasing proportion of peripheral and financial issuers in the
European HY universe.
Inflows into HY mutual funds have been
strong so far in 2012, but new issuance has
cooled down a bit in April and May.
Strategic (1 to 2 years)
e We expect US defaults to remain at below- average levels for longer. Significant re- leveraging is unlikely in the medium term.
° We believe US high yield corporate bonds will provide good returns for absolute return-oriented investors, as well as relative to other fixed income segments.
Yield spreads 2,500 bps
2,000 1,500 1,000
500
ce)
2005 2006 2007 —EUR High Yield
2008 2009 2010 2012
—USD High Yield
2011
Source: Bloomberg, UBS CIO, as of 26 June 2012 Note: Past performance is not an indication of future returns. 27
For further information please contact ClO’s asset class specialist Philipp Schdttler, philipp.schoettler@ubs.com
Please see important disclaimer and disclosures at the end of the document.
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