BofAML GFSI™ X-Asset Risk Landscape
GFSI below ‘normal’ for longest period since summer 2014
The GFSI continued its decline last week, falling to -0.21 as of 2-Jun from -0.17 a week prior. The indicator last spent a significant proportion of time below -0.2 back in summer 2014, when cross asset volatility recorded long term lows.
+ Equity risks led the broad based decline in stress across asset classes (Chart 2 and Chart 3), led by equity skew.
¢ While most stresses fell, crude oil volatility was among the top gainers (Chart 2) as oil continued its slide despite the May OPEC meeting seeing agreement for extending production cuts.
- Also, Euro member bond spreads recorded a historically significant move higher (Chart 5) as the potential for early Italian elections causing political instability amidst ECB tapering revived concerns about European sovereign risk
Chart 1: Latest* stress across GFSI sub-components 2.0 4
6S Fo _ @ Risk 15 4 S ex Red shaded area highlights components in ak Green shaded area highlights components in » 104 . 2 FI ew Bullish territory low £05 © 05 4 -1.0 #ée -1.5 5 : : Lee, >eave aa eravras ao > aed @ o oc sss esvpeoeopeoeadsse ESB ESSEBBESHR ESS SG EER ESS SS EAS ESSSSESSESREGZEESES atPoatyjnarP PHU MP aM eGEOZGRReFePUDBDSYHSAE4 He Qe twOaBara alt) BARE 2, eHRRET EZ ERERHRLE FS ECHZLSRLSHVSEELEZTLEESEBEES at pepEnOaRZFTtnanagtiggzg ti sasasazre ed S) RealtwnroetSeSSe2@Qe 6 = 26 AZEexuns x Os SekBrF pate 5B @B@oaeeb ea Sie o@ ex mE x e = 5 Bn lo) BeEnarD Fr SB BF Ses 2Be rene en ex =~FPeA Ferd = ACDBEBEES ofr eegtaag So7-P-PDeetesazaoe EKkMS a LSOUSRRER @BZ2ZEK ® Ao a} GSO So oo ute 8 sO & Oo n Ss os = 2 5 2 2e a = co oo eas - co Ww oO oO 2 n = = = ra) a ra) > > oO > wo 8 ad RQ PR ae 22 = Of s5 3s & = 4 a a =] ~ ~ in] a a a O uw A 8 & io) 5 £ £ zB is) Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. *Latest as of 2-Jun-17. Chart 2: Change** in stress across GFSI sub-components. W442 2 26 2 see e ame Risk B | | in 7 > Skew wu Z 2 | eo 8 E Fg o ns) 08 D3 ? arwvey oe Zz > far ee aqaars a as s&e& paAsA ee > Be See SSC eS TS HET ER ER BSESDEBSEHESESERESBSSESHEESES TUF AMmMeteOzpeoaPrPaeabtbsesUGtrAFrArBDIues sF2PtOetetdese5s er td5guung FG 2 2SEP CFC END ESB EEL EHP DFP HTFweenEGZFVEEZEwDEBENDSHVENVDRZSEZRHOSGZSO ® na oBE Oo >i-o Fe aQaoRugAE&R 2@F>O5 qQ7 D=0— 5 ozo oar &55 2S SRB>E SOSH EatTH Er SZsREOP SESS oe ow 7 8 AteS&is: w x =P Aan ao] 5h ox3 o ao 2 Sor og wreei eOgnger.es t Hee OeH BRE x xo FeSa eres tA SEK ess GervrteEstPsesS sg Pszr>sseBKFeEx FRAG BSneoRR° FS “BETS HgZgsr* stags = SASH Zee n 2a 2° B 2 5 Ss ez = 2 ne Sey z S 8 @ od iS B = & E zag iS) = & oD Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. **Latest as of 2-Jun-17. Change vs 1 week prior (26-May-17). The GFSI Risk Allocator (using Bull, Bear & Neutral weights of 2, 0, 1} suggested a 21.7% overweight position on 2-Jun (vs 13.0% OW as of 26-May). The percentages of Bullish, Bearish and Neutral GFSI components (as used in the Risk Allocator) as of 2-Jun were 30.4%, 8.7% and 60.9% respectively. Z Global Equity Volatility Insights | 06 June 2017 ate a
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_023576
