USA Consumers =
Biggest Demand Driver For GDP Growth, Until 2007
Personal Consumption’s Contribution to Real GDP Growth, 1950 - 2009
= 4% = £ (0) = 2% ~~ > a a (0) rt 0% wo a ay, m@ Real GDP Y/Y Growth 71) a re Personal Consumption Expenditure’s Contribution to Real GDP Growth BAY So — cen ee ae os a a eee eS = RE a Se = eR eS SO = a 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 KP Source: BEA. (@)E) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 361
Beginning in 2007, Wealth Destruction + High Unemployment Forced Consumers
to Save Again, Potentially Reducing Short-Term Demand for Goods & Services
3% average annual GDP growth (1981 - 2007) was helped as the average USA consumer: 1) Increased personal consumption as percent of GDP to 71% from 62%;
2) Decreased personal savings rate to 2% of disposable income from 11%;
Beginning in 2007, things changed as:
1) The average US consumer experienced a material decline in the value of his / her largest investment assets (real estate and equities) from 2007 to 2009 when peak-to-trough valuations for USA residential real estate declined 30% and the S&P 500 declined 56%;
2) Unemployment rose to 10% in 2009 / 2010 from 30-year trough of 4% in 1999, creating uncertainty regarding future personal income levels;
3) Personal savings rate increased to 6% in 2009 / 2010 of disposable income from 2% in 2007, as uncertainty grows and appetite for consumption ebbs;
All in, the key driver of US GDP growth — the US consumer’s ability to spend — is severely constrained in the short term as he / she aims to rebuild savings and contain spending. This raises the question — ‘How fast can US GDP grow annually over the next ten years?’ Determining ways to drive GDP (and related job growth) is crucial...
Source: Residential real estate decline based on CQ1:07 to CQ1:09 changes in S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. GDP
KP growth & composition / personal savings rate per BEA. Unemployment rate per BLS. www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 362
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021022