It’s Easy to Gripe About USA Inc.’s High Expense Levels...
That Said, High Expenses Could be Covered by High Revenue
e There are two primary drivers of USA Inc.’s revenue: 1) GDP growth and 2) related tax levies on consumers and businesses.
e To bring its income statement mechanically to break-even for 2009 (excluding one- time charges), USA Inc. would have needed to raise individual income tax rates by ~2x across-the-board to an average of ~26-30% (from ~13%) of gross income.' This certainly seems draconian. And a tax increase of this nature would surely have a significant negative impact on USA’s GDP growth as consumers would have far less disposable income to buy goods and services.
e This brings us to a key element of USA’s financial challenges — the need to drive economic (GDP) AND related job growth. This is not easy. A material portion of GDP growth over the past few decades was driven by rising consumption aided by rising leverage and we have now entered a period of de-leveraging.
e Stronger economic growth would be hugely beneficial for USA Inc.’s revenues. But the legacy of the financial crisis - severe housing imbalances and the need to complete the long process of writing off private mortgage debt — means that the US recovery will probably remain slow for at least several years. The silver lining: A booming global economy should provide a modest lift to US growth.
Note: 1) USA Inc.’s F2009 revenue shortfall was $997B (excluding one-time discretionary spending items). F2009 total income tax receipts from individuals were $915B. As a result, if one were to raise individual income tax rates alone to achieve
[ financial break-even, one would have to more than double individual income tax rates across-the-board. www.kpcb.com ne. at Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? B kpeb USA Inc. | What Might a T dE Consider? 357
Drive Growth: If Real GDP Grows 0.1 Percentage Point Faster Than Current CBO Projection For F2011-F2020E, the Budget Deficit Could Shrink by 5%
Without Other Policy Changes
e CBO analysis shows that for every 0.1 percentage point (pps) increase in real GDP annual growth rate above CBO’s baseline estimate for F2011-F2020E, USA Inc.’s revenue (driven by taxes) could be $247 billion higher, spending could be $41 billion lower (driven by reduced welfare spending) and the budget deficit could be reduced by $288 billion, or 5%.
CBO’s baseline What if real GDP : Deficit assumption for annual _— grows faster than Revende Spending Reduction
real GDP growth CBO’s forecast by... ($B / %) ($B / %) ($B / %)
+$247 -$41 -$288
eee +1% % 5% 2.1% F2011E +$1,235 -$205 -$1 ,440
° EIeRe +3% --% -23%
4.4% F2012-14E
° 1 one +$2,470 -$410 -$2,880
2.4% F2015-20E pp +6% 1% -46% +$4,940 -$820 -$5,760
ZiRB= +13% 2% 92%
Note: pps is percentage point(s). $ amount and % changes in revenue / spending / deficit are over the entire F2011-F2020E KP period. Source: CBO, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020,” 8/10. (@E) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | What Might a Turnaround Expert Consider? 358
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_021020