Real Estate Bubble: Root Causes—Government Home Ownership Push +
Declining Interest & Savings Rates + Aggressive Borrowing and Lending Led to 10+ Years of Rising Home Ownership USA Home Ownership Rates vs. Interest Rates vs. Personal Savings Rates, 1965 - 2010
0, _ i 0, 70% June 2004: US home ownership = 73MM 20% 68% ~ + 16% = fa ro) £ 66% | January 1993: HUD began promoting & cL broader home ownership. US home a a ownership = 62MM L 0, o o 12% - s < 2 5 g 2 & 4h a 8 w £ 2 2 | 8% = (4 ‘ ~ a 3 5 62% 5 > = 6 =] + 4% 60% 58% 1 1 1 1 + + ; ; ; ~~ 0%
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
——U.S. Home Ownership Rate U.S. Interest Rate «="PU.S. Home Ownership Rate 30-year (1965-1995) Trendline
—— U.S. Personal Savings Rate Note: HUD is Dept. of Housing & Urban Development. interest rate is the overnight
federal funds rate. Data as of CQ1:10. Savings rate is amount of saving divided by income after taxes.
KP Data source: Federal Reserve, DOC Bureau of Economic Analysis. (@E www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 183
Real Estate Bubble: Home Prices Rose Dramatically (7% Annually) for
10 Years — Up ~2x Over 10-Year Period Ending 2007
USA Real Home Price & Building Cost Indexes, % Change 1965 — 2008
—— USA Real Home Price Index
—— USA Real Building Cost Index
% Change from 1965 Level
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Note: Real home prices & building costs are inflation-adjusted. Source: Robert Shiller, Yale University. Ce USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 184
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