Debt Level: Why Will It Continue to Rise?
Answer Part 1: Notional Social Security “Trust Fund” Surpluses Likely Turning Into Deficits Owing to Aging Population
Social Security Cumulative Real Operating Surpluses / Deficits, 1982-2037E
Cumulative Surpluses Projected Cumulative (1982-2008) Reduced MES Deficits (2009-2037E) Federal Debt by Could Increase Federal $1.4T Debt by $11.6T
Social Security Operating Income ($B)
1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012E 2017E 2022E 2027E 2032E 2037E
Note: Surpluses & deficits exclude Trust Fund interest income, adjusted for inflation in 2009 dollars.
KP Source: Congressional Budget Office. (@)E) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 155
Debt Level: Why Will It Continue to Rise? Answer Part 2: Notional Medicare* “Trust Fund” Surpluses Likely urning Into Deficits Owing to Aging Population
Medicare Part A* Cumulative Real Operating Surpluses / Deficits, 1982-2037E
$100
& $0
a
E
°
)
=
2 -$100
rs
@
a
fe)
= -$200
a
¢ Cumulative Surpluses Projected Cumulative
2 (1982-2008) Reduced MEN Deficits (2009-2037E)
ks -$300 Federal Debt by Could Increase Federal
$21B Debt by $5T
-$400
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013E 2018E 2023E 2028E 2033E
Note: Data are adjusted for inflation in 2009 dollars. *Only Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) has a trust fund (funded by payroll taxes), Part B (medical KP insurance) and Part D (prescription drug benefits) are primarily funded by general tax revenue and premium / co-payments. Source: Medicare Trustees. (@E) www.kpcb.com USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 156
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