Unemployment Benefits: Good News—Unemployment Change In the Past
Has Strong (71%) Inverse Correlation with Real GDP Change, so Economic Growth Should Reduce Unemployment
Q/Q Unemployment Rate Change & Real GDP Change, CQ1:48 — CQ4:10
20% ~~ 2 nn ee eee ene ne eee 200% Se ee. ee 150% 10% -4-----9----9--------- 2-2-2 pee ee ee eee eee eee
100% l
wr MN \ Nha w |
Quarterly Unemployment Change Quarterly Real GDP Change (Inverse Scale)
5% | 1 may, Wey | | | 50% 10% jee yo IN | Be 0, 45% --W----------- -100% —— Quarterly Unemployment Rate Change 20% — Quarterly RealGDP Change (Inverse Scale) 150% 1Q48 1Q53 1958 1Q63 1Q68 1Q73 1Q78 1983 1088 1093 1998 1003 1008 K P Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics. i USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 125
Unemployment Benefits: Bad News—Newly Extended Unemployment Benefits
Could Cost USA Inc. $34 Billion in Next Two Years
Net Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits to Federal Government, F2010-2011E
$30,000 - ---- ------- +222 ee ne ee ee ne ee ee ne ee eee
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
Cost of Extended Unemployment Benefits ($MM)
F2010E F2011E
Note: Net cost of the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act of 2010 is expected to decline substantially in F20172E
because the deadline to file for extended unemployment benefits expires in November 2010 and federal extended
KP unemployment insurance provides benefits for up to 99 weeks (less than two years). Source: Congressional Budget Office, 7/10. (@E) www.kpcb.com
USA Inc. | Income Statement Drilldown 126
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_020904