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China had succeeded, it would have forced a significant modification of Singapore’s approach to Taiwan.
This was not the first unofficial visit by a Singaporean leader to Taiwan. Previous unofficial visits by even more senior Singapore leaders had passed without incident. The 2004 visit conformed to the established pattern in form and substance of previous visits. But what the 2004 incident had in common with the 2016-17 episode was that both occurred at times of political transition in Singapore.
In 2004, it was clear that Lee Hsien Loong would replace Goh Chok Tong as Singapore’s third prime minister. By 2016, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had made public his intention to step aside after the next general election (due by 2020) and let a younger generation of political leaders take over. The pressures deployed on both occasions may have been intended as tests of the resolve of new leaders and warnings to new leaders about what to expect unless they were more accommodating to China.
South China Sea
When Singapore became the ASEAN country coordinator in 2016, Chinese diplomats called upon Singapore to “explain” China’s position on the SCS to other ASEAN countries, or to ensure that the issue was not raised in ASEAN forums, or, if raised, downplayed. Such demarches have been routine in all ASEAN countries for many years.
Simultaneously, messages targeting civil society and other sectors began to appear, most prominently on social media. The aim was to instill a fatalistic acceptance of the inevitability and desirability of a Chinese identity for multiracial Singapore and to get Singaporeans—and not just Chinese Singaporeans—to pressure the government to align Singapore’s national interests with China’s interests. In essence, they asserted:
e Unlike Lee Kuan Yew, who had died in 2015, the current Singapore leadership under Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong did not know how to deal with China. Relations were so much better then.
e Singapore has no territorial claims in the SCS, so why was it siding with the United States against China?
e Surely, as a “Chinese country,” Singapore should “explain” China’s position to the others or stay neutral.
It is difficult to pin down the precise origins of such narratives, but they closely resemble arguments made in the Chinese media, in particular the Global Times.
Appendix 2
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