trailing Instagram and Facebook. Interestingly, after Snapchat passed Instagram in early 2016 in average minutes per user, Instagram recaptured the lead mid-year and has extended it since. While the cause for the shift is not certain, the trends align with the launch of Instagram Stories (August 2016) as well as some technology challenges on the Snapchat front (Android). Regardless of the near-term lumpiness, we believe overall daily engagement puts Snapchat in a strong position to capture emerging online marketing ad budgets.
Table 23: Average minutes per user trend Aug-2016 Sep-2016 Oct-2016 Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Feb-2017
‘Snapchat 267 267 272 269 an 254 211] Instagram 292 294 325 337 322 357 318 Facebook 769 766 855 826 781 827 700 Twitter 143 149 139 114 108 128 110
Source: comScore, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Chart 14: Instagram vs Snapchat average monthly minutes per visitor 400
350 300 290 200 150 100
2/14 4/14 6/14 8/14 10/14 12/14 2/15 4/15 6/15 8/15 10/15 12/15 2/16 4/16 6/16 8/16 10/16 12/16 27
——Snapchat -===Instagram
Source: comScore
Estimates vs Consensus
Our 1Q revenue estimate of $163mn (down 1% q/q) is slightly above consensus at $158mn (down 5%}, but we note the range of estimates is considerable ($130-196mn) and some checks suggest that Snap was aggressive with advertisers in 1Q. For the year, our $1.0bn revenue estimate is mostly in-line with the Street, as is our 2018 estimate at $2.1bn. We do not model positive adjusted EBITDA until 2Q19, and expect investors to focus mostly on user revenue trends.
Table 24: Snap Estimate Summary
1017 2017 2017 2018 2019 Revenue BofA ML est. $163 $208 $1,007 $2,057 $3,719 Growth Y/Y% 320% 190% 149% 104% 81% Street $158 $206 $1,034 $2,032 $3,303 BofA ML vs Street Above Above Below Above Above EBITDA BofA ML est. -$168 -$158 -$580 -$335 $276 Street -$180 -$194 -$617 -$392 $80 BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above Above EPS BofA ML est. -$0.18 -$0.15 -$0.59 -$0.37 $0.12 Street -$0.21 -$0.13 -$0.57 -$0.33 $0.00 BofA ML vs Street Above Below Below Below Above
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Bankof America 2 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 35 Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014921