Exhibit 22: ISG Prospective Total Returns
Expected returns over the next one and five years are below historical realized averages.
% 8 @ 2017 Prospective Return
™5-Year Prospective Annualized Return 7
2 2 2 1 1 0 10-Year Muni1-10 USCash Treasury
EM Local Debt
S&P 500
5-Year Treasury
Hedge Funds
Data as of December 31, 2016. Note: For informational purposes only. There can be no assurance the forecasts will be achieved. Source: Investment Strategy Group. See endnote 53 for list of indices used.
5 5 4 4 4 3 ae! 3 3. 3 3 | I Euro Stoxx 50
Taxable Moderate Portfolio
EAFE Equity
US Corporate UK Equity High Yield
Muni High Yield
Japan Equity
EM Equity (US$)
increasingly concerned about the structural fault lines of emerging market countries. These fault lines were discussed in detail in our December 2013 Insight, Emerging Markets: As the Tide Goes Out.
We continue to recommend a zero allocation to emerging market debt (dollar-denominated and local currency debt) and a 2% allocation to emerging market equities in a moderate-risk diversified portfolio. We highlight emerging market assets because, yet again, our base case returns, especially for emerging market equities, appear compelling, but we are not recommending a tactical allocation to this asset class. As we discuss below in our review of the risks to our economic and financial market outlook, China is our biggest source of concern in 2017 and for the next few years. Emerging markets are the countries that would be most negatively impacted by any shocks emanating from China.
China is our biggest source of concern in 2017 and for the next few years. Emerging markets are the countries that would be most negatively impacted by any shocks emanating from China.
Our 2017 expected returns, shown in Exhibit 22, are the lowest returns we have published since the global financial crisis. Not a single broad asset class is expected to have double-digit returns. Cash has an expected return of 1%. Expected returns for intermediate investment grade fixed income securities range between 0% and 1% depending on maturities, an expectation driven by our view of rising rates as the Federal Reserve hikes the federal funds rate two or three times in 2017. US equities, which are the most expensive of global equities, have an expected return of about 3%, and we expect slightly higher returns in other developed market equities. Hedge funds, an asset class for which we have had modest single-digit return expectations since our 2013 Outlook (as shown in Exhibit 21), should continue to have modest returns; we expect a 3% return before taxes, compared to a 5% annualized return expectation in 2013 and an annualized return of 3% over the last four years.
In aggregate, a moderate-risk diversified portfolio for taxable clients is expected to have a return of about 3%. We must note that our return expectations are not meant to promote a specific investment, and
that their basis on current capital market assumptions implies they will likely change over the course of the year.
At this point, our clients may well be asking why they should remain invested in a diversified portfolio with such paltry
Outlook | Investment Strategy Group 23
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