Exhibit 15: 10-Year Net Survival Rate of Breast and Prostate Cancer Patients Improved cancer survival rates reflect significant gains in science and technology.
% 100 -
a fo}
Nn a
2
Breast Cancer
Data as of November 2014.
84 78 76 | 9 1 60 62 | 48 40 34 | |
1971-1972 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001 2005-2006 2010-2011
1971-1972 1980-1981 1990-1991 2000-2001 2005-2006 2010-2011 Prostate Cancer
Period of Diagnosis
Note: Based on cancer statistics for the UK. Ten-year survival for 2005-2006 and 2010-2011 is predicted using an excess hazard statistical model.
Source: Investment Strategy Group, Cancer Research UK.
We conclude that there is undoubtedly some degree of mismeasurement. We know that information and communication technology has evolved significantly and innovation is occurring at a rapid pace. We know that the BEA reviews its statistical methodologies every five years and revises them as needed, recognizing that measurement methodologies have to evolve with the evolution of the US economy. We also know that we as consumers carry incredibly powerful digital equipment in the palms of our hands and pay less for it than we paid for equipment with lesser functionalities not so long ago. Common sense supplemented by extensive research by the experts on productivity and mismeasurement reinforces our view of a glass half-full when it comes to innovation and productivity in the US.
We realize this debate will be resolved only with the benefit of hindsight, in the same way that realized productivity growth exceeded the
We realize this debate will be resolved only with the benefit of hindsight, in the same way that realized productivity growth exceeded the prognostications
of Hansen in the late 1930s and Krugman in the early 1990s.
prognostications of Hansen in the late 1930s and Krugman in the early 1990s. Our clients will be inundated with conflicting views from headlines in the media and books with captivating titles. Separating fact from fiction remains challenging. Recently, an article in the Wall Street Journal highlighted “dwindling gains in science, technology and medicine.”*° The article suggested that improvements in breast cancer mortality have slowed since 1985. Exhibit 15 shows the 10-year net survival rate for breast cancer and prostate cancer since 1971. Maybe it is only a matter of perspective, but, to us, a 78% 10-year survival rate for breast cancer and an 84% 10-year survival rate for prostate cancer represent significant improvements over the rates of the early 1980s, 48% and 25%, respectively, and are even more significant for those whose lives have been saved. Probably one of the more amusing instances of conflicting perspectives can be seen in the 2016 publication of two books with diametrically opposed messages: Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future“ and The Innovation Illusion: How So Little Is Created by So Many Working So Hard, both written by authors born in Sweden in the early 1970s. Our views, of course, are more aligned with the first book. The second book, however, raises important concerns about excessive regulation and how
Outlook | Investment Strategy Group 17
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