2017 OUTLOOK
Contents
SECTION |
6 Half Full
We continue to view the glass as half-full—if not full—when it comes to the US economy.
8 This Recovery in Context—An Update
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20 One- and Five-Year Expected Total Returns
24
A Hangover from a Crisis
Secular Stagnation: Unfavorable Demographics
Secular Stagnation: Declining Productivity Growth
Mismeasurement of GDP Statistics Poor Policies in Washington A Steady Onslaught of External Shocks
In Summary
Our Tactical Tilts
25 The Risks to Our Outlook
26
Pace of Federal Reserve Tightening
27 Low Expectations of a US Recession
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33
Rising Influence of Populist Parties in the Eurozone
Geopolitical Hot Spots Get Hotter Terrorism Escalates Cyberattacks Continue
China Submerges Under Its Debt Burden and Capital Outflows
US-China Relations Deteriorate Under the Trump Administration
35 Key Takeaways
We expect a favorable global economic and policy backdrop in 2017, but there is no shortage of risks. We recommend clients stay invested in US equities with some tactical tilts to US high yield and European equities.
4 | Goldman Sachs | JANUARY 2017
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