Equities: Add long Nikkei to EM Asia
Global equity markets have gone in very different directions post the US election. EM have fared worst, Europe little changed, S&P at new all-time highs, the Russell and Nikkei on a tear higher. This is not how we were positioned so we need to ask the question of whether and what we need to change.
Table 2: MSCI EM Asia at a 2PE point discount to other equity markets Chart 27: Japan relatively cheap at 14.1x fwd earnings Ase iM MSCIJapan MSCIEurope — MSCIUS 50 fwd PE. 2m fwdPE 12m fwd PE 12m fwd PE 45 MSCI Japan 42m fwd PE Latest 11.9 14.1 143 17.0 40 Min 76 97 74 104 35 Max 185 44.5 23.9 25.2 30 Av 15 18.2 14.0 159 SD 18 68 34 3.2 25 Z-score 0.2 -0.6 0.1 03 20 hile 68% 31% 60% 73% 45
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCl, IBES 10
2000 2001
N Q N
2003
wrTmookr- © DD oo O.6UDUWCUwMDlUwS
Qo Qo NNN NN SN
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, IBES
If we stand back from the noise and just look at the valuations, the US is the most expensive, MSCI Asia ex the cheapest in absolute terms. Our strategists see decent earnings growth likely to come through in EM Asia, and while there is upside to US earnings estimates from potential corporate tax cuts at least part of it is priced in. Savita Subrahamian has a target for the US of 2300 in her year ahead Euphoria or fiscal fizzle?, an upside of a less than 5%. Our European strategists have an upside of around 6%. So that leaves EM Asia and Japan (given our 20k target) as the stand outs according to our equity strategists. Indeed, the PE of Japan is towards the bottom end of the range since 2000.
Sticking with EM Asia
One of our concerns on EM was a more hawkish Fed and therefore a stronger USD. So we regarded our positions in those asset classes as something of a hedge to our EM positions. As we explained above we are keeping that stance as on our central scenario there is more to go and on a risk scenario where bond markets overshoot the USD is likely to follow.
In the equity world, if our fixed income and FX forecasts are right, then we do not see them as being an impediment to our EM Asia position working again. Our EM strategists remain upbeat and Ajay Kapur actually upgraded his call to buy from a tactical pause post the election (A Call to Action: Time to BUY Asia/EMs). They think the right focus is one on growth rather than the USD and we continue to be upbeat on the prospects for EM growth, particularly in Asia. Ajay in particular makes the point that Chinese nominal GDP growth has been accelerating and that tends to be very good for Asian equity markets. Nigel Tupper’s global wave has continued to improve and he argues that remains consistent with strong performance from Asia ex Japan equities.
Bankof America 2 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 = 15 Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014446