supportive of the 5 star movement or threatened the recapitalisation of the Italian banks (see Strategy Insights: Italy risks elevated).
In 2017 the focus turns to core Europe, especially France and Germany. Because of the winner takes all system in France we find investors are more concerned with the situation there. Marine Le Pen and the Front National look likely to make it to the second round of voting (again according to polls) and until the vote comes in we suspect investors will be cautious about European markets. A Le Pen victory could likely bring the future of the EU and the Euro into question as she has talked about France withdrawing from both. That in turn has arguably the potential to be even more of an earthquake for the world’s financial markets. Our central case is that centre right President is elected in France (with Francois Fillon now the official Republican candidate) and Merkel is returned at the head of a coalition government in Germany.
Chart 19: German polls show a consistent lead for Merkel’s CDU party Chart 20: Fillon well ahead of Le Pen in polls showing a potential run-off 40 100 : 90 " Oy On%@ gate 20 tHe “008 as” “ehan 46 06 4 80 30 +4 4 a aa a a4 a4 4 70 2 1 an aMMe, 0.0 06 Oas,, 4 OaatPBasatataiaa” a 20 ‘a! ll WHY Weems’ Wemen’) anehame@eh 4 50 40 18 z ri 30 40 Ma aat@Pannatatatatata*an*enans aMa 20 5 10 @CDU @SPD aAfD 0 0 rw eee 12-14 15-17 13-16 10-12 14-17 9-11 25-Nov 27-Nov OND IND ND ND ND NTP ND ND ND PND ND ND GN AP ND ND ND CAD END NS | 7 Fes vee Sy SES ov ox or an in d SO see April April May June June Sept HEELEEEEEE SS PEPE P PORE m Francois Fillon (%) ™ Marine Le Pen (%)
Source: Ifop (12-14 Apr, 14-17 Jun), BVA (15-17 Apr, 13-16 Mar, 10-12 Jun, 9-11 Sept), Odoxa (25
Source: Allensbach (15-Sept, 13-Oct), Emnid (7-Sept, 14-Sept, 21-Sept, 28-Sept, 5-Oct, 12-Oct, 19- Nov), Harris Interactive (27 Nov}, Note: all 2016.
Oct, 26-Oct, 2-Nov, 9-Nov, 19-Nov), Forsa (2-Sept, 9-Sept, 16-Sept, 23-Sept, 30-Sept, 7-Oct, 14-Oct, 21-Oct, 28-Oct, 4-Nov), Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (22-Sept, 13-Oct, 27-Oct, 10-Nov), GMS (14-Sept, 12-Oct, 12-Nov), Infratest dimap (21-Sept, 5-Oct, 19-Oct, 2-Nov), INSA (5-Sept, 12-Sept, 19-Sept, 26- Sept, 3-Oct, 10-Oct, 17-Oct, 24-Oct, 2-Nov, 7-Nov, 14-Nov, 22-Nov), Ipsos (10-Oct)
Were this to be the case then we think there may well be room for a significant relief rally in European assets. Until then we think it likely investors will demand a higher risk premium.
Brexit was the big political topic for Europe going into 2016. Going forward we see it as an ongoing issue but mostly for the UK. The political uncertainty is likely to be extended, even after Article 50 is triggered as any significant negotiations probably need to await the outcome of the French and German elections. We expect the UK economy to struggle as the lagged effect of the fall in the currency hurts consumers and while there may be contrarian trades available in the GBP during 2017, our strategists think it goes lower first on the triggering of Article 50.
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12 Global Cross Asset Strategy - Year Ahead | 30 November 2016 Merrill Lynch
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