large balance sheet is the ability to take advantage of market dislocation, along with high margins.
¢ The firm grew at a healthy rate from 2004-2014, and with around 1,200 people now there doesn’t need to be much growth in headcount for the time being, the infrastructure is in place. Marshall Wace AUM has grown significantly since they did the deal, due in part to advantages from combining the two firms. Real estate is an area where KKR is small and could see more growth.
Specialty Finance
American Express Company (AXP), B-2-7, Neutral Presenting from American Express Company was Mr. Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer. Overall we thought AXP presented a fairly upbeat outlook on billings, loan and revenue growth. AXP did express caution on near-term Discount rate pressures and FX headwinds.
e When asked what would be a key factor to increase / initiate a position in AXP, 53% of the audience said they would like to see better visibility in AXP’s core growth. AXP acknowledged the sale of the Costco portfolio to Citi has added complexity to reporting results and has provided additional disclosures on underlying trends in the quarterly results. AXP also said that accelerating revenue growth is a key area of focus for management.
Chart 64: What would be a key factor for you to increase / initiate a position in American Express?
60% 53% 40%
20%
0% Accelerating global © Renewed visibility in Solid execution of cost + More aggressive growth growth in AXP’s core reduction initiatives capital management business
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
¢ AXP was alittle surprised that more investors did not view its focus on loan growth as an appropriate strategy to increase wallet share amongst the revolving segment. Instead a plurality of investors viewed AXP’s strategy as appropriate in light of the portfolio sale but risky due to the duration of the credit cycle. While investors were concerned about the duration of the credit cycle, AXP emphasized its low loss rates and premium customer base as well as the loss of the Costco portfolio to argue that AXP's credit profile will not materially change from its current strategy to grow revolving balances through revolving credit card customers.
Chart 65: How would you describe American Express’ strategy to expand exposure to credit?
60% 46% 40% 20%
0%
Timely opportunity to Appropriate strategy to Appropriate in light of Risky due to extended grow earnings while increase wallet share the Costco portfolio duration of the credit credit costs arelow | amongstrevolving __ sale but risky due to cycle
segment duration of credit cycle
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Bankof America a 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 45 Merrill Lynch
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