Chart 13: Where do you think distributions for the industry will be in 2017 vs. 2016?
40%
35%
30%
29%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Roughly flat Up 5-15% Up 15%+ Down 5-15% Down 15%+
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Election results could have far reaching impacts for the sector
When asked “What is the most likely impact from the election results on the alternative asset managers?” investors were fairly mixed in their responses, indicating to us that investors expect a number of changes. The most common response was increased tax on carried interest (33%), followed by higher rates impacting financing costs and some returns (27%), then stronger economic growth and healthy returns (20%). Few investors expect a decrease in bank regulation slowing alternative manager growth in new areas (13%) along with too much euphoria leading to a market correction (7%).
Chart 14: What is the most likely impact from the election results on the alternative asset managers?
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Stronger economic Increased tax rate Higherrates | Decreased bank Too much growth and _ on carried interest impacting regulation euphoria leading healthy returns for financing costs potentially slowing to a market the alternative and some returns growthinnew correction and managers areas deployment opportunities
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
Specialty / Consumer finance Takeaways
Companies were generally bullish on the US consumer heading into 2017. AXP presented a fairly upbeat outlook on billings, loan and revenue growth, while cautioning that Discount rate pressures and FX headwinds could impact near-term results. The
Bankof America a 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 9 Merrill Lynch
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