Fro Sent: Wed 4/10/2013 9:58:01 AM Subject: Early Tour 4.10.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 60-150 bps (Portugal +2.8%, Spain +2.1%) ASX - 0.18%, NKY +0.73%, KOSPI +0.77%, TWSE +0.31%, SHCOMP +0.02%, HSI +0.25% EUR 1.3096 (+0.10%) JPY 99.41 (-0.39%) EUR/JPY 130.17 (+0.48%) AUD 1.0519 (+0.28%) Spain 10yr 4.67% Italy 10yr 4.34% US 10yr 1.77% Futures: Dow +33, Nasdaq +10, S&P +4 DXY $82.33 (+3c) Crude $93.96 (-24c) Gold $1581.10 (- $5.60) Copper -0.38% Asian markets mostly higher overnight, with Japan once again leading the way (Topix ended +1.7%). UBS upgraded Japan to Overweight and selected the market as the most preferred in APAC. They also raised their 2013 year-end JPY target to 110 from 100 and 2014 year-end target to 120. Nomura also out with Yen targets of 100 at end of June 2013, 102 at year-end 2013, and 106 at year-end 2014. South Korea was a quiet session but ended higher as sellers remained muted while foreigners and pension were slightly better to buy. Investors remained sidelined in light of the North Korean situation, although no missiles have yet been fired. The SHCOMP ended flat after China's rating was cut by Fitch on lack of transparency into growing local government debt. China's exports rose less than forecast for the first time in four months, as they increased 10% vs. 11.7% consensus and 21.8% previously. Imports rose by 14% in March, higher than expected and boosting the trade deficit to $880M. Australia underperformed despite strength in the miners on back of several broker upgrades. European markets well bid to start the day following the US strength yesterday afternoon. EMU Banks outperforming (SX7E +3.5%) led by Portuguese banks. Solar also acting well on the heels of FSLR yesterday. George Soros spoke last night in Germany and said that a solution to the Eurozone crisis can be summed up in one word: Eurobonds. He went on to argue that it is up to Germany to take the lead on this front and that if they are not prepared to do so then they should consider leaving the Euro. The full text can be read here courtesy of Project Syndicate. Obama to publish his budget today. FOMC minutes due later this afternoon and focus will be on whether there was any debate around the timing of tapering asset purchases. SPA's +4 handles = 1567.50 last. "'Mortgage Apps @ 7am, Treasury Monthly Budget Statement / FOMC Minutes @ 2prnm "FAST, FDO, KMX, PGR, STZ report pre-open / BBRY #'s after close— EFTA_R1_00709951 EFTA02143650 • ADTRAN better than expected on solid revenues & gross margins (outlook this AM) (trading +1.5%) • PriceSmart Q2 profit & revs beat ests (revs from stores open at least 13.5mos solid) (trading +3%) • Health Management forecast weak results & lowered outlook for FY (weak admissions) (trading - 12%) • Agrium says none of Jana's nominees elected to the board (ceo to continue to expand retail network) • Thermo Fisher Scientific bides more than $65/share for Life Technologies says Reuters • Daimler: FT reports CEO may revise down 2013 profit guidance, reaffirms LT goals, AGM today (trading +2.7%) • Siemens: CEO cautious in Handelsblatt, sees no big global economic driver or pick up in H2 (trading +1.1%) • Gerresheimer good O1, revs ahead, EBITDA & EPS slight better, maintains sales guidance (trading +1.8%) • Swatch: WSJ reports regulator is considering phasing out mandatory sales to third parties (trading +1.9%) • Raiffeisen confirms FY net & €1.17 div, flat/slight increase in costs, share sale still option (trading +2.2%) • Vedanta O4 production inline, oil & gas output 19% higher, iron ore hurt by Goa suspension (trading +4.0%) • Salzgitter CEO bullish on steel price increases (speaking on sidelines of Hannover Fair) (trading +2.6%) • KPN trading +6.8% (short covering and heavy call buying ahead of the AGM today 1pm CET) • Wacker Chemie trading +6.8% (in sympathy with First Solar) (18% free-float short interest) • Spain Feb Industrial Output y/y -6.5% vs est 4.9%, Italy Feb IP -0.8% m/m vs est -0.5% • Slovenia SDP leader says may need to seek a bailout if it faces much more market pressure • EM equity funds move money from India & BRICs to the US & Japan (Economic Times) • Kazuo Okada under criminal investigation, US says in filing (6425 JP closed -15.7%) • Australia Treasurer Swan supports US/Japan policy but says AUD is "defying gravity" Leading European Sectors: Banks +2.42%, Autos/Parts +2.03%, Insurance +1.67% Lagging European Sectors: Healthcare +0.22%, Food/Bev +0.42%, Media +0.43% EFTA_R1_00799952 EFTA02143651 RLGY outlook lower — MINI COO leaving — SEAC guidance light Secondaries (announced/priced): RLGY (holders), RSO, INFI, DRTX, SGYP IPO's (filed/priced): KNOT Offshore (KNOP) 7.5M-shares priced at $21, William Lyon Homes (WLH) files for $200M through Credit Suisse and Citi US Key Research: • Piper upgrades AEO & PSUN & cuts AGU, Barcap upgrades GEO, Jetferies initiates IEP (buy) • GS upgrades ABC (buy) & downgrades OSK/ARO (sell's) & initiates MWE (neut) KBW upgrades CVS, Stifel initiates HOLX (hold), UBS upgrades IBM (buy) & downgrades NTAP '..- Janney initiates CHDN/MASI/IT (buy's), Key upgrades GBX (buy), Wedbush initiates HRB (op) • DA Davidson initiates HTLF(buy), Stifel initiates HOLX (hold), Evercore upgrades NFLX, Raja cuts PCC Europe Key Research: • HSBC downgrade BKG LN, SOP FP, initiate CRST LN (ow), UBS upgrade AZEM LN, initiate MOSZ RU (b) • Citi upgrade EZJ LN, DB upgrade NYR BB, GS add FTE FP to conviction sell list • MS add RWE CY, EDF FP to Europe Utilities top pick, SEV FP exits, EOAN GY, GSZ FP exit Utilities bottom picks BofAML upgrade AZM IM, SKFB SS, downgrade SAZ GY, MGAM LN, Natixis downgrade DEC FP, MMT FP • Kepler upgrade AF FP, SocGen upgrade PZU PW, ABN initiate NPRO NO (s), Equinet upgrade SNG GY • Nordea upgrade KLOV SS, CAST SS, PLCS NO, downgrade HUFVA SS, BEREN initiate COFB BB (h) EFTA_R1_00799953 EFTA02143652 Exane downgrade ELUXB SS, upgrade ASSAB SS, FLS DC, SIE GY, HO FP, MAQ downgrade 1913 HK JEFF initiate MOBS BB (h), DNB upgrade STL NO, Oriel downgrade IAEM LN, Numis u/g SGP LN, d/g RVG LN Reporting Pre-Open: FAST, FDO, KMX, PGR, STZ, JKS, MSM, TITN Reporting Post-Close: BBBY, APOG, RELL, RT Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications t 7am, Treasury Monthly Budget Statement / FOMC Minutes @ 2pm Treasury Auction of 10-yr Notes © 1pm ($21B) Fed Speakers: Lockhart © 7:30am (Atlanta Fed Conf), Kocherlakota © 8:30am (Stone Mountain, GA), Fisher © 5pm (El Paso, TX) Conferences: Telsey Spring Consumer (NYC), CIBC Real Estate (Toronto) Analyst/Investor Days: AAP, HIS, CPN, KPN NA, DAI GY Non-Deal Roadshows: ALOG, ANW, CIEN, CLMT, CMRE, CWTR, DDR, EPL, HPQ, HST, ISIS, LOW, PSA, SIG, SKT, SMTC, SNPS, SSI, SSL, TAHO, TIF, TSLA, VTNC Shareholder Meetings: GAM, BMO, LEN, MUSA, FMFC Equity/Mixed Shelfs: TRNX Other Newspaper Articles & Stories EFTA_R1_00799954 EFTA02143653 Barron's positive: Medicines Co. (MDCO) Barron's • Chinese trade with US surges in O1 FT • Seoul on alert as N Korea moves missiles FT • KPMG resigns as Herbalife auditor FT • Repsol-YPF: dead cow tango Lex • BDCs: yield play Lex • In the Markets, at Least, Fannie and Freddie Still Astound NY Times • GE to Cut Back Trains WSJ • For Swatch, It's Time for a Change WSJ • Japanese Rush to Sell Gold as Price in Yen Jumps WSJ • Obama Aims to Spur New Talks on Budget WSJ • Andy Kessler: The Pension Rate-of-Return Fantasy WSJ Opinion • Think Twice Before Raiding Carried Interest WSJ • U.S. Land Gets More Expensive WSJ • Yahoo, Apple Discuss Deeper iPhone Partnership WSJ • Vince Cable tells City: Put more women in the boardroom before we force you Independent • UK signs tax deal with France, Germany, Italy and Spain Telegraph • North Korean army 'split' over Kim Jong-un Telegraph • Soros tells Germany accept eurobonds or quit euro Telegraph • To blame Margaret Thatcher for today's problems is to misunderstand history Telegraph • Slovenia could be next to suffer European disease The Times • 'Shadow' banking and debt knocks a notch off China The Times • Tax inspectors want a slice of free pie from Silicon Valley The Times • Slovenia's prime minister tries to quell eurozone bailout rumours Guardian • US confident it can intercept North Korean missiles, says top admiral Guardian EFTA_R1_00799955 EFTA02143654 • Lew's Visit to Europe Reveals a Wide Policy Divide NYT • Chiefs Silicon Valley Stardom Quickly Clashed at J.C. Penney NYT • A Solution for Penney May Be to Sell Itself, or Some of Its Assets NYT DealBook Key Events This Week Thursday: Import Price Index, Jobless Claims, Earnings (JBHT, PIR, RAD) Friday: PPI, Retail Sales, Michigan Confidence, Eurozone Fin Min meeting, Earnings (JPM, WFC) Key Events on the Horizon April 18 — Politicians in Italy expected to vote for new President May 8 — Ira Sohn Conference NYC May 19 — US debt ceiling limit May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections EFTA_R1_00799956 EFTA02143655 an. Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. if you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachment(s) is strictly prohibited. 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