2 October 2015 Global Economic Perspectives: A hard landing in China? Charts of the Week Chart 1. In the United States the ADP private employment report was fairly good, with 200K new jobs created. linvo 000 400 200 0 -200 400 400 400 -1000 02 03 04 05 06 07 a GO Same ADP, Mow Aneyobs. Dare Bin. Andre» gunge in Iota non-14/m employment I0 n 12 13 to 16 Chart 3.Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone continues to show improvement. Expectations of "major purchases" by consumers have spiked.. %bal two ea: crew: errs poiebeeee morn ewe %bet -12 i1 -14 -II -15 40 -22 40 AO -22 00 01 02 03 04 06 06 07 a Swop EC IfarawaS Dairscha art arm 'Chart 2. However the report highlights a big loss in US !manufacturing jobs - the largest in 5 years. mono change In total non-tann OMplOyment by Industy 230 • CcnstructIon • thelortrantixr6I-Mbet sProlesicnelfcc ones, seems, lasaufactunna a month 4<1h,144 40 Elep-2014 110/.20t4 Jan-2015 114-2015 Mey-2015 Joi-2015 6.0-2015 Sawa ADP arm. .4.1044, 04460m• ant /6410.44 Chart 4.The banking sector deleveraging ends. Low !EGO rates are making their way to the "real economy". 16 60mo area Intense tan charged for meN loan to Oren 11 45yre) 10 7.0 I -12 IA CO -14 $.6 -10 5.0 4.6 40 -22 3.6 3.0 — Ile/ —Spats —Fine — 00naaat 65110 rte -20 2.6 -2s 2.0 04 05 OS 07 a a 10 12 Is 14 16 00 10 n 12 13 14 16 OS 1 Chan 5. China NBS Manufacturing nil report was slightly better than consensus a a 07 a a 10 11 12 13 10 16 Sony CRP, Haw Ais46c2. Oahe. MS norm Page 18 Sant ECE4 Howe tAlayok* &Know • Bet Amen* ithart.6.. While in Australia, economy grows sluggish 2.0 percent yly in second-quarter of 2015 Maas 1 MOO 500 Japan pal..4114411,0 06 06 07 01 00 10 11 12 13 14 IS Sooty. AIM HaverA0MIn. Danche De dims lades 1200 116 0 1100 1030 1000 1160 000 260 00.0 16.0 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0118542 SDNY_GM_00264726 EFTA01458568