28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Fig 7: Export volumes have remained below trend since 2001 49 48 47 46 4.5 16 Fig 8: Export volume deviations from trend strongly correlated with moving average of dollar valwtion L/507kvi /ion Ts.4 420 winette0 44o,Evoto.Otwor. 00017101010n0 41S 410 006 66 000 005 010 016 Conebion - -04) 020 61 56 Fig 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge seems to have boosted export volume growth -20 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan-02 Jan06 Jan-10 nacaSzteato bans to fuer 4.30 4.40 4.50 4.60 4.70 4.80 Fig 11: Import price inflation has followed the dollar 25 20 15 0 7 \ V -ri ll \ 5 -10 -15 -20 Jan-94 Jan-98 —1)54981104,marted0rts) • Impolt Pic' I 1 I In 026 020 015 010 005 000 005 4 10 415 420 025 Fig 10: The recent sharp increase in import price inflation has tapered off during the past few months 20 15 • 10 • 5• 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 - Jana. —animaVolum Impoit Price 0h4) SONY LkeaStream Darrso`t 2.'* Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 22 17 12 .3 4 -13 -18 Fig-12: Import volume growth has generally been highly correlated with US domestic demand growth 20 15 10 5 0 -10 -15 -20 -25 Jan94 ••••••5-nporlVolime US 'Piths) Jan-98 Jan-02 01/15IRWO. Daman Fri sonny OgoSat•on Deutsche 84,11 Jan46 Jan-10 10 S -5 -10 -15 Page 34 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0104765 SDNY_GM_00250949 EFTA01449376