30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax U.S. Trade Balance Monitor [Figure 1: The US trade deficit continues to recover 0 -100 O, ti USO Bn .100 -200 -200 -300 -300 -4C0 -400 -500 -BOO -600 -700 -700 -B047 —Annualized Trude Balance -900 J Annualized Trade Balance 3m 4 -500 Sum —Annualized Trade Balance.12m Sum Saws teratreeetterswesarnt ( Figure 3: The narrowing in the deficit reflected a outpacing of import growth by export growth Figure 27 US and world industrial growth remains sedate 15 .10 - -15 Jan-97 Id IP OK US IP luoY) US P (Yet') Jan-96 Jan-00 Source AsesSinerrn bind* Beak Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 15 10 6 0 -5 -10 -15 Figure Recently export prices have receded sharply while export volumes have increased slightly 25 30 20 s‘v. . • 20 15 YOY.% • 10 10 5 15 r 4 r —r , —4. 5 4 91.6 i lkihr, -5 0 If 41 45 -11S . EligiortValurs Growth -10 i b ci • -10 • -20 • -30 -15 1 43 ,4170. • t o 45 Import ValreGrweth -40 -20 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-I2 Jan-92 Jan-se Jan-00 Jan-04 Jart-OB Jan-12 San: DeteStream. &Wad» Sant Scars DasSavam. Amber* Ira Figure 5: Export prices tend to follow the dollar Figure 6: Export volume growth closely follows external demand 12 )(Pen Pico ln 0 -e U51.1;420.. nwneo Owl -12 Jan-94 Doc-06 Nov-09 Oot.02 Sop.05 Ata5043 Juld dap: DiltaStraam Candi•• Dant 430 4 40 50 20 15 yoy.% 10 5 an 0 -6 -10 .16 40 Jan-84 I Seesaw Ibtagrawn dash* Sant Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. volume work, Ip n. to in,' I.,' Jen-913 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jon-10 Page 39 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0104695 SONY GM_00250879 EFTA01449333