28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank Japan (JPY trillion) Figure 1: The negative basic balance has been accelerating recently... 20 15 - 0 - 5 L I 0 • ' B••Ie Ina 12M sum USOPPf (sighs "Dab, Numb:9 JirP91 Jan-94 Jone7 Jinx Jant0 Jen-08 Jon Jan-12 :COW. C4/ {-% D.... . 70 CO 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Figure 3: Net capital inflows have turned negative 10 0 -10 •20 2 MO. *Ln —Net 671.411 , 40 —Net 00006 HMS Flows Na More/ MAW Howe -40 —Net CaptelFbut 98 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 II 12 Shkv• Daft Swag* my MC': 20 Figure 2' as net FDI outflows gather momentum 1 -2 . —Wtfp Dag ines.snerri n .14444 by Feely** .14 44 -Cosa mm Abend by A031d0111,1 Jan-94 Jan.97 Jan.00 lar40 Jen-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Figure 4: Net bond outflows have accelerated IS 101 10 5 0 -10 - -5 20 45 12 rrc air -30 -26 Foals n Mum .40 Figure 5: Net equity flows have turned positive 20 70 16 15 10 - 10 6 -5 - -5 40 40 , -- Japan Fbvn .15 -16 Fosilso %bon • .20 Not E QUI)! F bum -20 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 OS 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 12 ma urn Sm.r• OtsPs Armee, aus,MOr 4 -5 .8 41 15 10 6 -5 -10 -16 ,20 -26 .30 J —Nei Bowls& Hobos Fbws 30 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 06 09 10 11 12 13 Figure 6: While Net money-market inflows have fallen substc ntially 20 15 10 0 -s -to -15 -20 97 98 99 00 01 W 03 04 06 OR 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Saco OBFl worn re PAV Pago 22 Deutsche Bank AG/London CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104610 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250794 EFTA01449272