30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax r Figure 13: In EM. the main driver of reserve growth has been intervention (In USD bn) 2700 2300 1900 1600 1100 700 300 -100 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 —Tout 9544.44 in Ell wares Sus 1995 TOO 4•44t41. 00490 —Tou viduabn 2700 2300 1903 1933 1100 700 300 .100 San* OSFXR•arinA Figure 15: First active diversification, than leaning against the wind Sane COW% init. Del Or Rematch (Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during I2002-04 then stabilized BO - 50 - % DIANSICNIC0 so 70 CMS ea —Yen — S•11.4 Luau 40 - Awn PVC 004a Curenan 000hit The vend 40 30 - 90 20 - 20 10- 10 0 1199 2000 2002 2003 2005 2005 2008 2009 2011 201 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 50.000 Cara MAg, De TX Resosith Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD since 2004 (our estimates) 04 JO Se 10 20 10 0 4:04 NO, 2004 ism eaVii0 011.11DIsChrsiXA•••44. 10:0 , .....rmAlow44.0410t4 0 4•410J4401 04402 an.01 04404 Jaw Deo44J44 0040 444U SowarlAST/Ccess DI {151.01{0 1 Page 48 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104561 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250745 EFTA01449239