30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax Figure 7: Export volumes have remained below trend Figure 8: Export volume deviations from trend is no since 2001 4.0 4.7 4.6 4!. Sager Dalarea, PUNS* Bog [Figure 9: A brief end to the dollar upsurge doesn't seem (Figure 10: Recovery in import price is boosting the volume during the past few months longer correlated with moving average of dollar valuation -070 10 10 000 oa 010 o 111 070 aannnnAVADnAlern ,een USIA Oman* Mannote0 Saw DIOAMA Lant.4 Ba•A -0 n. to bolster export volume growth 20 10 —Exoortvolurno I 04Y0Y.116 ilf:TRIIIMA.kny•Ited6W 0 -10 -20 Jan-94 Jan-98 Jan.02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Source. DeteStrewn, Deutsch* Sant Lo 20 15 440 10 0 4 60 -5 4 30 4 50 4 70 4 80 -10 15 . .fratect Vohanis InpOn Pico Val Jan.92 Jana) Jana) San• &bays% Detach, Bank Jan C4 Jan-03 Jan-12 Figure 1 : Import price inflation has followed the dollar Figure 12: Import volume growth has generally been highly correlated with US domestic demand growth 26 —Import Pnce 20 USTABA0Aineftearh91 VW.% i 16 6 - -5 0 It) NikI 10 A\ - .15 i ir .1 i. -20 Jan-94 Jan-99 Jan-O2 Jan-06 Jan-10 Sown. Conearen Dance* 8ent Page 40 -12 20 15 -7 10 5 0 -2 3 -5 -10 8 -15 -20 13 -25 Ja -94 —import Volume US811rhst Jon-99 Jan-02 Jan-06 Jan-10 Savor OestSrewn Set 22 17 12 •I3 a 8 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250737 DB-SDNY-0104553 EFTA01449232